HonestElo
← bantamweight

Umar Nurmagomedov

Active #3 bantamweight · Orthodox · 173 cm
Elo rating
1683 ±28
LCB 1646
Rank
#3
top 2% of division
UFC record
8-1-0
KO 1 · Sub 2 · Dec 5
Streak
+2
Δ90d +16 · Δ1y +32
Last fight
Jan 24, 2026
W by Decision

Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Jan 20, 2021 — W vs Sergey Morozov Δ+33Mar 5, 2022 — W vs Brian Kelleher Δ+37Jun 25, 2022 — W vs Nate Maness Δ+30Jan 14, 2023 — W vs Raoni Barcelos Δ+34Mar 2, 2024 — W vs Bekzat Almakhan Δ+18Aug 3, 2024 — W vs Cory Sandhagen Δ+18Jan 18, 2025 — L vs Merab Dvalishvili Δ-19Oct 25, 2025 — W vs Mario Bautista Δ+16Jan 24, 2026 — W vs Deiveson Figueiredo Δ+16 14931550160816651723 20222023202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":199,"elo":1533,"date":"2021-01-20","opp":"Sergey Morozov","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":214.4,"y":165,"elo":1570,"date":"2022-03-05","opp":"Brian Kelleher","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":2,"x":266.6,"y":136.8,"elo":1600,"date":"2022-06-25","opp":"Nate Maness","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":3,"x":361.1,"y":106,"elo":1634,"date":"2023-01-14","opp":"Raoni Barcelos","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":4,"x":553.4,"y":89.2,"elo":1652,"date":"2024-03-02","opp":"Bekzat Almakhan","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":5,"x":625.1,"y":72.7,"elo":1670,"date":"2024-08-03","opp":"Cory Sandhagen","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":703.3,"y":90.4,"elo":1651,"date":"2025-01-18","opp":"Merab Dvalishvili","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":7,"x":833.6,"y":76,"elo":1666,"date":"2025-10-25","opp":"Mario Bautista","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":876,"y":61,"elo":1683,"date":"2026-01-24","opp":"Deiveson Figueiredo","result":"W","delta":16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jan 24, 2026 Deiveson Figueiredo W +16
Oct 25, 2025 Mario Bautista W +16
Jan 18, 2025 Merab Dvalishvili L -19
Aug 3, 2024 Cory Sandhagen W +18
Mar 2, 2024 Bekzat Almakhan W +18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.76 avg 3.93
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
56% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.82 avg 3.08
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
61% avg 58%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
3.92 avg 1.57
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
47% avg 36%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
79% avg 68%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.23 avg 0.37
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
6 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
38%
3 / 8
Finish rate
KO
1
13% of wins
SUB
2
25% of wins
DEC
5
63% of wins
KO: 1 (13%) 1 Sub: 2 (25%) 2 Dec: 5 (63%) 5
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
2 67%
R2
1 33%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1638
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.5
actual +3 vs expected