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Mario Bautista

Active #8 bantamweight · age 32 · Switch · 5'9" 175 cm · 135 lb 61 kg · reach 69" 175 cm
Upcoming bout Sat, Jul 11
vs Cory Sandhagen · UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
At a glance
  • Performance of the Night in last fight
  • Career-best 8-fight win streak
Elo rating
1613
Global Elo 1644 ±24
Rank
#8
top 9% of division
UFC record
11-3-0
KO 1 · Sub 4 · Dec 6
Streak
+1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +3
Last fight
Feb 7, 2026
Win by Submission · R2
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 21m
Avg fight time
10:06
Bonuses
4
Fights per year
2.0
Ground control
33m
Since last fight
4mo

Honest Elo history

14 fights · tap & drag
Jan 19, 2019 — L vs Cory Sandhagen Δ-27Jul 20, 2019 — W vs Jin Soo Son Δ+29Feb 8, 2020 — W vs Miles Johns Δ+36Mar 6, 2021 — L vs Trevin Jones Δ-37Feb 19, 2022 — W vs Jay Perrin Δ+29Jun 25, 2022 — W vs Brian Kelleher Δ+20Nov 5, 2022 — W vs Benito Lopez Δ+17Mar 11, 2023 — W vs Guido Cannetti Δ+14Aug 19, 2023 — W vs Da'Mon Blackshear Δ+14Jan 13, 2024 — W vs Ricky Simon Δ+16Oct 5, 2024 — W vs Jose Aldo Δ+19Jun 7, 2025 — W vs Patchy Mix Δ+10Oct 25, 2025 — L vs Umar Nurmagomedov Δ-15Feb 7, 2026 — W vs Vinicius Oliveira Δ+19 140014501500155016001650 202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":355.6,"elo":1443,"date":"2019-01-19","opp":"Cory Sandhagen","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":1,"x":140.9,"y":318.7,"elo":1471,"date":"2019-07-20","opp":"Jin Soo Son","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":2,"x":197.6,"y":272.8,"elo":1507,"date":"2020-02-08","opp":"Miles Johns","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":3,"x":307.2,"y":319.8,"elo":1471,"date":"2021-03-06","opp":"Trevin Jones","result":"L","delta":-37},{"i":4,"x":405,"y":283,"elo":1499,"date":"2022-02-19","opp":"Jay Perrin","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":5,"x":440.2,"y":258.1,"elo":1519,"date":"2022-06-25","opp":"Brian Kelleher","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":6,"x":477.4,"y":236,"elo":1536,"date":"2022-11-05","opp":"Benito Lopez","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":7,"x":512.6,"y":218.3,"elo":1550,"date":"2023-03-11","opp":"Guido Cannetti","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":8,"x":557.6,"y":200.3,"elo":1564,"date":"2023-08-19","opp":"Da'Mon Blackshear","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":9,"x":598.7,"y":179.3,"elo":1580,"date":"2024-01-13","opp":"Ricky Simon","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":673,"y":154.8,"elo":1599,"date":"2024-10-05","opp":"Jose Aldo","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":11,"x":741.5,"y":141.6,"elo":1610,"date":"2025-06-07","opp":"Patchy Mix","result":"W","delta":10},{"i":12,"x":780.7,"y":161.4,"elo":1594,"date":"2025-10-25","opp":"Umar Nurmagomedov","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":13,"x":810,"y":137.6,"elo":1613,"date":"2026-02-07","opp":"Vinicius Oliveira","result":"W","delta":19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 7, 2026 Vinicius Oliveira W +19
Oct 25, 2025 Umar Nurmagomedov L -15
Jun 7, 2025 Patchy Mix W +10
Oct 5, 2024 Jose Aldo W +19
Jan 13, 2024 Ricky Simon W +16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
45%
5 / 11
Finish rate
KO
1
9% of wins
SUB
4
36% of wins
DEC
6
55% of wins
KO: 1 (9%) 1 Sub: 4 (36%) 4 Dec: 6 (55%) 6
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
3 60%
R2
2 40%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 750 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
61% Head
  • Head 61%
  • Body 27%
  • Leg 12%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
82% Distance
  • Distance 82%
  • Clinch 13%
  • Ground 6%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
67%
of losses by finish
2 of 3
1 KO/TKO 1 Sub 1 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1613
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
3
of 11 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Jose Aldo
Elo 1682 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
7.2
+3.9 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 14 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1569
1629
Notable wins
Jose Aldo 1682 Vinicius Oliveira 1629 Ricky Simon 1604

Top bantamweight

See full rankings →
Merab Dvalishvili
#1 · Elo 1679
Petr Yan C
#2 · Elo 1661
Umar Nurmagomedov
#3 · Elo 1649
Sean O'Malley
#4 · Elo 1632
Farid Basharat
#5 · Elo 1630
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Mario Bautista on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.