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Mario Bautista

Active #7 bantamweight · Switch · 175 cm · reach 175 cm
Elo rating
1644 ±26
LCB 1610
Rank
#7
top 6% of division
UFC record
11-3-0
KO 1 · Sub 4 · Dec 6
Streak
+1
Δ90d +19 · Δ1y +13
Last fight
Feb 7, 2026
W by Submission

Elo history

14 fights · tap & drag
Jan 19, 2019 — L vs Cory Sandhagen Δ-27Jul 20, 2019 — W vs Jin Soo Son Δ+29Feb 8, 2020 — W vs Miles Johns Δ+36Mar 6, 2021 — L vs Trevin Jones Δ-37Feb 19, 2022 — W vs Jay Perrin Δ+29Jun 25, 2022 — W vs Brian Kelleher Δ+20Nov 5, 2022 — W vs Benito Lopez Δ+17Mar 11, 2023 — W vs Guido Cannetti Δ+14Aug 19, 2023 — W vs Da'Mon Blackshear Δ+14Jan 13, 2024 — W vs Ricky Simon Δ+16Oct 5, 2024 — W vs Jose Aldo Δ+19Jun 7, 2025 — W vs Patchy Mix Δ+10Oct 25, 2025 — L vs Umar Nurmagomedov Δ-15Feb 7, 2026 — W vs Vinicius Oliveira Δ+19 14331496155916211684 202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":202.1,"elo":1473,"date":"2019-01-19","opp":"Cory Sandhagen","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":1,"x":84.2,"y":177.7,"elo":1502,"date":"2019-07-20","opp":"Jin Soo Son","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":2,"x":151.3,"y":147.3,"elo":1538,"date":"2020-02-08","opp":"Miles Johns","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":3,"x":281,"y":178.4,"elo":1501,"date":"2021-03-06","opp":"Trevin Jones","result":"L","delta":-37},{"i":4,"x":396.8,"y":154.1,"elo":1530,"date":"2022-02-19","opp":"Jay Perrin","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":5,"x":438.4,"y":137.6,"elo":1550,"date":"2022-06-25","opp":"Brian Kelleher","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":6,"x":482.4,"y":123,"elo":1567,"date":"2022-11-05","opp":"Benito Lopez","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":7,"x":524.1,"y":111.2,"elo":1581,"date":"2023-03-11","opp":"Guido Cannetti","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":8,"x":577.3,"y":99.4,"elo":1595,"date":"2023-08-19","opp":"Da'Mon Blackshear","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":9,"x":626,"y":85.5,"elo":1611,"date":"2024-01-13","opp":"Ricky Simon","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":713.9,"y":69.2,"elo":1630,"date":"2024-10-05","opp":"Jose Aldo","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":11,"x":795,"y":60.5,"elo":1641,"date":"2025-06-07","opp":"Patchy Mix","result":"W","delta":10},{"i":12,"x":841.3,"y":73.6,"elo":1625,"date":"2025-10-25","opp":"Umar Nurmagomedov","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":13,"x":876,"y":57.9,"elo":1644,"date":"2026-02-07","opp":"Vinicius Oliveira","result":"W","delta":19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 7, 2026 Vinicius Oliveira W +19
Oct 25, 2025 Umar Nurmagomedov L -15
Jun 7, 2025 Patchy Mix W +10
Oct 5, 2024 Jose Aldo W +19
Jan 13, 2024 Ricky Simon W +16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.84 avg 3.89
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
49% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.63 avg 3.02
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
55% avg 58%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.74 avg 1.64
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
38% avg 36%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
56% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.77 avg 0.35
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
45%
5 / 11
Finish rate
KO
1
9% of wins
SUB
4
36% of wins
DEC
6
55% of wins
KO: 1 (9%) 1 Sub: 4 (36%) 4 Dec: 6 (55%) 6
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
3 60%
R2
2 40%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1613
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
7.2
actual +4 vs expected