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Matt Schnell "Danger"

Active #31 flyweight · age 36 · Orthodox · 5'8" 173 cm · 125 lb 57 kg · reach 70" 178 cm
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • UFC veteran since 2016
Elo rating
1441
Global Elo 1484 ±33
Rank
#31
top 70% of division
UFC record
7-9-0
KO 0 · Sub 3 · Dec 4
Streak
-2
Δ90d -19 · Δ1y -37
Last fight
Jun 6, 2026
Loss by KO · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 52m
Avg fight time
6:59
Bonuses
6
Fights per year
1.7
Since last fight
14d

Honest Elo history

16 fights · tap & drag
Dec 3, 2016 — L vs Rob Font Δ-30Apr 22, 2017 — L vs Hector Sandoval Δ-30Oct 7, 2017 — W vs Marco Beltran Δ+34Jun 23, 2018 — W vs Naoki Inoue Δ+33Mar 9, 2019 — W vs Louis Smolka Δ+37Aug 3, 2019 — W vs Jordan Espinosa Δ+18Dec 21, 2019 — L vs Alexandre Pantoja Δ-17Jan 20, 2021 — W vs Tyson Nam Δ+15May 7, 2022 — L vs Brandon Royval Δ-20Jul 16, 2022 — W vs Sumudaerji Δ+19Dec 3, 2022 — L vs Matheus Nicolau Δ-16Mar 2, 2024 — L vs Steve Erceg Δ-18Sep 7, 2024 — L vs Cody Durden Δ-19Apr 26, 2025 — W vs Jimmy Flick Δ+14Nov 8, 2025 — L vs Joseph Morales Δ-19Jun 6, 2026 — L vs Alessandro Costa Δ-19 13751400142514501475150015251550 20182020202220242026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":313.6,"elo":1428,"date":"2016-12-03","opp":"Rob Font","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":1,"x":119,"y":368.1,"elo":1398,"date":"2017-04-22","opp":"Hector Sandoval","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":2,"x":153.9,"y":305.4,"elo":1432,"date":"2017-10-07","opp":"Marco Beltran","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":3,"x":207.6,"y":244.5,"elo":1466,"date":"2018-06-23","opp":"Naoki Inoue","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":4,"x":261.3,"y":176.5,"elo":1503,"date":"2019-03-09","opp":"Louis Smolka","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":5,"x":291.8,"y":144.5,"elo":1520,"date":"2019-08-03","opp":"Jordan Espinosa","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":320.8,"y":175.6,"elo":1503,"date":"2019-12-21","opp":"Alexandre Pantoja","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":7,"x":402.9,"y":148.1,"elo":1518,"date":"2021-01-20","opp":"Tyson Nam","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":8,"x":500.8,"y":184.5,"elo":1498,"date":"2022-05-07","opp":"Brandon Royval","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":9,"x":515.3,"y":149.6,"elo":1517,"date":"2022-07-16","opp":"Sumudaerji","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":10,"x":544.4,"y":179.1,"elo":1501,"date":"2022-12-03","opp":"Matheus Nicolau","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":11,"x":638.7,"y":211.4,"elo":1484,"date":"2024-03-02","opp":"Steve Erceg","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":12,"x":677.9,"y":246.7,"elo":1464,"date":"2024-09-07","opp":"Cody Durden","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":13,"x":725.8,"y":220.6,"elo":1479,"date":"2025-04-26","opp":"Jimmy Flick","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":14,"x":766.5,"y":254.8,"elo":1460,"date":"2025-11-08","opp":"Joseph Morales","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":15,"x":810,"y":288.9,"elo":1441,"date":"2026-06-06","opp":"Alessandro Costa","result":"L","delta":-19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jun 6, 2026 Alessandro Costa L -19
Nov 8, 2025 Joseph Morales L -19
Apr 26, 2025 Jimmy Flick W +14
Sep 7, 2024 Cody Durden L -19
Mar 2, 2024 Steve Erceg L -18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
43%
3 / 7
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
3
43% of wins
DEC
4
57% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 3 (43%) 3 Dec: 4 (57%) 4
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
2 67%
R2
1 33%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 449 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
74% Head
  • Head 74%
  • Body 10%
  • Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
82% Distance
  • Distance 82%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 10%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
100%
of losses by finish
9 of 9 · usually R1
6 KO/TKO 3 Sub 0 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1510
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 7 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Sumudaerji
Elo 1553 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
7.7
−0.7 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 16 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1537
1497

Top flyweight

See full rankings →
Alexandre Pantoja
#1 · Elo 1646
Joshua Van C
#2 · Elo 1633
Manel Kape
#3 · Elo 1601
Tatsuro Taira
#4 · Elo 1597
Kyoji Horiguchi
#5 · Elo 1578
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Matt Schnell on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.