HonestElo
← flyweight

Matt Schnell

Active #34 flyweight · Orthodox · 173 cm · reach 178 cm
Elo rating
1503 ±39
LCB 1452
Rank
#34
top 63% of division
UFC record
7-8-0
KO 0 · Sub 3 · Dec 4
Streak
-1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -4
Last fight
Nov 8, 2025
L by Submission

Elo history

15 fights · tap & drag
Dec 3, 2016 — L vs Rob Font Δ-30Apr 22, 2017 — L vs Hector Sandoval Δ-30Oct 7, 2017 — W vs Marco Beltran Δ+34Jun 23, 2018 — W vs Naoki Inoue Δ+33Mar 9, 2019 — W vs Louis Smolka Δ+37Aug 3, 2019 — W vs Jordan Espinosa Δ+18Dec 21, 2019 — L vs Alexandre Pantoja Δ-17Jan 20, 2021 — W vs Tyson Nam Δ+15May 7, 2022 — L vs Brandon Royval Δ-20Jul 16, 2022 — W vs Sumudaerji Δ+19Dec 3, 2022 — L vs Matheus Nicolau Δ-16Mar 2, 2024 — L vs Steve Erceg Δ-18Sep 7, 2024 — L vs Cody Durden Δ-19Apr 26, 2025 — W vs Jimmy Flick Δ+14Nov 8, 2025 — L vs Joseph Morales Δ-19 14011451150215521603 2018202020222024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":162.9,"elo":1470,"date":"2016-12-03","opp":"Rob Font","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":1,"x":60.6,"y":194.1,"elo":1441,"date":"2017-04-22","opp":"Hector Sandoval","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":2,"x":104.4,"y":158.1,"elo":1475,"date":"2017-10-07","opp":"Marco Beltran","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":3,"x":172.1,"y":123.2,"elo":1508,"date":"2018-06-23","opp":"Naoki Inoue","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":4,"x":239.7,"y":84.3,"elo":1545,"date":"2019-03-09","opp":"Louis Smolka","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":5,"x":278.1,"y":65.9,"elo":1563,"date":"2019-08-03","opp":"Jordan Espinosa","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":314.7,"y":83.7,"elo":1546,"date":"2019-12-21","opp":"Alexandre Pantoja","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":7,"x":418.1,"y":68,"elo":1561,"date":"2021-01-20","opp":"Tyson Nam","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":8,"x":541.4,"y":88.9,"elo":1541,"date":"2022-05-07","opp":"Brandon Royval","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":9,"x":559.7,"y":68.9,"elo":1560,"date":"2022-07-16","opp":"Sumudaerji","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":10,"x":596.3,"y":85.7,"elo":1544,"date":"2022-12-03","opp":"Matheus Nicolau","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":11,"x":715.1,"y":104.3,"elo":1526,"date":"2024-03-02","opp":"Steve Erceg","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":12,"x":764.5,"y":124.5,"elo":1507,"date":"2024-09-07","opp":"Cody Durden","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":13,"x":824.8,"y":109.5,"elo":1521,"date":"2025-04-26","opp":"Jimmy Flick","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":14,"x":876,"y":129.1,"elo":1503,"date":"2025-11-08","opp":"Joseph Morales","result":"L","delta":-19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 8, 2025 Joseph Morales L -19
Apr 26, 2025 Jimmy Flick W +14
Sep 7, 2024 Cody Durden L -19
Mar 2, 2024 Steve Erceg L -18
Dec 3, 2022 Matheus Nicolau L -16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.27 avg 3.39
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
39% avg 47%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.25 avg 2.87
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
57% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.56 avg 1.55
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
45% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
45% avg 64%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.11 avg 0.74
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
43%
3 / 7
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
3
43% of wins
DEC
4
57% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 3 (43%) 3 Dec: 4 (57%) 4
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
2 67%
R2
1 33%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1531
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
7.2
actual 0 vs expected