HonestElo
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Brandon Royval

Active #15 flyweight · Southpaw · 175 cm · reach 173 cm
Elo rating
1565 ±37
LCB 1516
Rank
#15
top 27% of division
UFC record
7-5-0
KO 1 · Sub 3 · Dec 3
Streak
-2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -33
Last fight
Dec 13, 2025
L by KO

Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
May 30, 2020 — W vs Tim Elliott Δ+29Sep 26, 2020 — W vs Kai Kara-France Δ+37Nov 21, 2020 — L vs Brandon Moreno Δ-33Aug 21, 2021 — L vs Alexandre Pantoja Δ-27Jan 15, 2022 — W vs Rogerio Bontorin Δ+28May 7, 2022 — W vs Matt Schnell Δ+20Apr 15, 2023 — W vs Matheus Nicolau Δ+22Dec 16, 2023 — L vs Alexandre Pantoja Δ-16Feb 24, 2024 — W vs Brandon Moreno Δ+19Oct 12, 2024 — W vs Tatsuro Taira Δ+19Jun 28, 2025 — L vs Joshua Van Δ-16Dec 13, 2025 — L vs Manel Kape Δ-18 14661509155215951638 20212022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":158.6,"elo":1529,"date":"2020-05-30","opp":"Tim Elliott","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":74.1,"y":113.3,"elo":1566,"date":"2020-09-26","opp":"Kai Kara-France","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":2,"x":97.7,"y":153.6,"elo":1533,"date":"2020-11-21","opp":"Brandon Moreno","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":3,"x":212.7,"y":186.8,"elo":1506,"date":"2021-08-21","opp":"Alexandre Pantoja","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":4,"x":274.6,"y":152.5,"elo":1534,"date":"2022-01-15","opp":"Rogerio Bontorin","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":5,"x":321.8,"y":128.2,"elo":1554,"date":"2022-05-07","opp":"Matt Schnell","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":6,"x":466.2,"y":101.2,"elo":1576,"date":"2023-04-15","opp":"Matheus Nicolau","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":7,"x":569.4,"y":120.5,"elo":1560,"date":"2023-12-16","opp":"Alexandre Pantoja","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":8,"x":598.9,"y":96.9,"elo":1579,"date":"2024-02-24","opp":"Brandon Moreno","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":9,"x":696.2,"y":73.2,"elo":1598,"date":"2024-10-12","opp":"Tatsuro Taira","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":10,"x":805.2,"y":92.7,"elo":1582,"date":"2025-06-28","opp":"Joshua Van","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":11,"x":876,"y":114.5,"elo":1565,"date":"2025-12-13","opp":"Manel Kape","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Dec 13, 2025 Manel Kape L -18
Jun 28, 2025 Joshua Van L -16
Oct 12, 2024 Tatsuro Taira W +19
Feb 24, 2024 Brandon Moreno W +19
Dec 16, 2023 Alexandre Pantoja L -16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.95 avg 3.34
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
42% avg 47%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.80 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
43% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.58 avg 1.59
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
75% avg 41%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
45% avg 64%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.97 avg 0.73
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
57%
4 / 7
Finish rate
KO
1
14% of wins
SUB
3
43% of wins
DEC
3
43% of wins
KO: 1 (14%) 1 Sub: 3 (43%) 3 Dec: 3 (43%) 3
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
2 50%
R2
2 50%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1626
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.5
actual +2 vs expected