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Brandon Royval "Raw Dawg"

Active #14 flyweight · age 33 · Southpaw · 5'9" 175 cm · 125 lb 57 kg · reach 68" 173 cm
Upcoming bout Sat, Jul 11
vs Lone'er Kavanagh · UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
At a glance
Elo rating
1515
Global Elo 1565 ±38
Rank
#14
top 30% of division
UFC record
7-5-0
KO 1 · Sub 3 · Dec 3
Streak
-2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -33
Last fight
Dec 13, 2025
Loss by KO · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 19m
Avg fight time
11:33
Title fights
0-1
Bonuses
8
Fights per year
2.2
Since last fight
6mo

Honest Elo history

12 fights · tap & drag
May 30, 2020 — W vs Tim Elliott Δ+29Sep 26, 2020 — W vs Kai Kara-France Δ+37Nov 21, 2020 — L vs Brandon Moreno Δ-33Aug 21, 2021 — L vs Alexandre Pantoja Δ-27Jan 15, 2022 — W vs Rogerio Bontorin Δ+28May 7, 2022 — W vs Matt Schnell Δ+20Apr 15, 2023 — W vs Matheus Nicolau Δ+22Dec 16, 2023 — L vs Alexandre Pantoja Δ-16Feb 24, 2024 — W vs Brandon Moreno Δ+19Oct 12, 2024 — W vs Tatsuro Taira Δ+19Jun 28, 2025 — L vs Joshua Van Δ-16Dec 13, 2025 — L vs Manel Kape Δ-18 1425145014751500152515501575 20212022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":293.5,"elo":1480,"date":"2020-05-30","opp":"Tim Elliott","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":132.4,"y":215,"elo":1516,"date":"2020-09-26","opp":"Kai Kara-France","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":2,"x":152.3,"y":285,"elo":1484,"date":"2020-11-21","opp":"Brandon Moreno","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":3,"x":249.4,"y":342.4,"elo":1457,"date":"2021-08-21","opp":"Alexandre Pantoja","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":4,"x":301.8,"y":283.1,"elo":1485,"date":"2022-01-15","opp":"Rogerio Bontorin","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":5,"x":341.6,"y":240.8,"elo":1504,"date":"2022-05-07","opp":"Matt Schnell","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":6,"x":463.7,"y":194.1,"elo":1526,"date":"2023-04-15","opp":"Matheus Nicolau","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":7,"x":550.9,"y":227.6,"elo":1511,"date":"2023-12-16","opp":"Alexandre Pantoja","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":8,"x":575.8,"y":186.6,"elo":1530,"date":"2024-02-24","opp":"Brandon Moreno","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":9,"x":658,"y":145.7,"elo":1549,"date":"2024-10-12","opp":"Tatsuro Taira","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":10,"x":750.2,"y":179.4,"elo":1533,"date":"2025-06-28","opp":"Joshua Van","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":11,"x":810,"y":217.1,"elo":1515,"date":"2025-12-13","opp":"Manel Kape","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Dec 13, 2025 Manel Kape L -18
Jun 28, 2025 Joshua Van L -16
Oct 12, 2024 Tatsuro Taira W +19
Feb 24, 2024 Brandon Moreno W +19
Dec 16, 2023 Alexandre Pantoja L -16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
57%
4 / 7
Finish rate
KO
1
14% of wins
SUB
3
43% of wins
DEC
3
43% of wins
KO: 1 (14%) 1 Sub: 3 (43%) 3 Dec: 3 (43%) 3
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
2 50%
R2
2 50%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 768 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
77% Head
  • Head 77%
  • Body 15%
  • Leg 7%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
88% Distance
  • Distance 88%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 8%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
60%
of losses by finish
3 of 5 · usually R1
2 KO/TKO 1 Sub 2 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1626
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
3
of 7 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Tatsuro Taira
Elo 1649 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
5.5
+1.5 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 12 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1455
1595
Notable wins
Tatsuro Taira 1649 Brandon Moreno 1629 Matheus Nicolau 1620

Top flyweight

See full rankings →
Alexandre Pantoja
#1 · Elo 1646
Joshua Van C
#2 · Elo 1633
Manel Kape
#3 · Elo 1601
Tatsuro Taira
#4 · Elo 1597
Kyoji Horiguchi
#5 · Elo 1578
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Brandon Royval on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.