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Matheus Nicolau

Active #17 flyweight · Orthodox · 168 cm · reach 168 cm
Elo rating
1560 ±38
LCB 1511
Rank
#17
top 31% of division
UFC record
7-4-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 5
Streak
-3
Δ90d -2 · Δ1y -2
Last fight
Oct 19, 2024
L by Decision

Elo history

11 fights · tap & drag
Nov 7, 2015 — W vs Bruno Korea Δ+33Jul 8, 2016 — W vs John Moraga Δ+30Dec 30, 2017 — W vs Louis Smolka Δ+28Jul 28, 2018 — L vs Dustin Ortiz Δ-37Mar 13, 2021 — W vs Manel Kape Δ+23Oct 9, 2021 — W vs Tim Elliott Δ+11Mar 26, 2022 — W vs David Dvorak Δ+16Dec 3, 2022 — W vs Matt Schnell Δ+16Apr 15, 2023 — L vs Brandon Royval Δ-22Apr 27, 2024 — L vs Alex Perez Δ-20Oct 19, 2024 — L vs Asu Almabayev Δ-16 14931535157716191660 2017201920212023 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":185.3,"elo":1533,"date":"2015-11-07","opp":"Bruno Korea","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":87.6,"y":146.8,"elo":1564,"date":"2016-07-08","opp":"John Moraga","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":228.3,"y":111.7,"elo":1591,"date":"2017-12-30","opp":"Louis Smolka","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":3,"x":283.1,"y":158.1,"elo":1555,"date":"2018-07-28","opp":"Dustin Ortiz","result":"L","delta":-37},{"i":4,"x":533,"y":129.4,"elo":1577,"date":"2021-03-13","opp":"Manel Kape","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":5,"x":587.7,"y":115,"elo":1589,"date":"2021-10-09","opp":"Tim Elliott","result":"W","delta":11},{"i":6,"x":631.5,"y":95.1,"elo":1604,"date":"2022-03-26","opp":"David Dvorak","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":7,"x":697.2,"y":74.7,"elo":1620,"date":"2022-12-03","opp":"Matt Schnell","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":731.9,"y":102.4,"elo":1599,"date":"2023-04-15","opp":"Brandon Royval","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":9,"x":830.4,"y":128,"elo":1578,"date":"2024-04-27","opp":"Alex Perez","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":10,"x":876,"y":147.8,"elo":1563,"date":"2024-10-19","opp":"Asu Almabayev","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 19, 2024 Asu Almabayev L -16
Apr 27, 2024 Alex Perez L -20
Apr 15, 2023 Brandon Royval L -22
Dec 3, 2022 Matt Schnell W +16
Mar 26, 2022 David Dvorak W +16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.02 avg 3.40
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
52% avg 46%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.73 avg 2.87
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
66% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.11 avg 1.57
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
43% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
90% avg 63%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.78 avg 0.74
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
29%
2 / 7
Finish rate
KO
1
14% of wins
SUB
1
14% of wins
DEC
5
71% of wins
KO: 1 (14%) 1 Sub: 1 (14%) 1 Dec: 5 (71%) 5
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
R2
1 50%
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1570
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.0
actual +1 vs expected