HonestElo
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Allan Nascimento

Active #5 catchweight · Orthodox · 175 cm
Elo rating
1595 ±33
LCB 1553
Rank
#5
top 17% of division
UFC record
4-1-0
KO 0 · Sub 2 · Dec 2
Streak
+4
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +55
Last fight
Nov 1, 2025
W by Submission

Elo history

5 fights · tap & drag
Oct 30, 2021 — L vs Tagir Ulanbekov Δ-27May 14, 2022 — W vs Jake Hadley Δ+31Jan 14, 2023 — W vs Carlos Hernandez Δ+35May 31, 2025 — W vs Jafel Filho Δ+29Nov 1, 2025 — W vs Cody Durden Δ+26 14331484153415851635 2022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":193.9,"elo":1473,"date":"2021-10-30","opp":"Tagir Ulanbekov","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":1,"x":138.1,"y":161.3,"elo":1504,"date":"2022-05-14","opp":"Jake Hadley","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":2,"x":280.8,"y":124.1,"elo":1540,"date":"2023-01-14","opp":"Carlos Hernandez","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":3,"x":786.3,"y":93.4,"elo":1569,"date":"2025-05-31","opp":"Jafel Filho","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":876,"y":66.1,"elo":1595,"date":"2025-11-01","opp":"Cody Durden","result":"W","delta":26}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 1, 2025 Cody Durden W +26
May 31, 2025 Jafel Filho W +29
Jan 14, 2023 Carlos Hernandez W +35
May 14, 2022 Jake Hadley W +31
Oct 30, 2021 Tagir Ulanbekov L -27

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
1.90
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
48%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.67
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
57%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.25
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
31%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
40%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.25
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
5
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
2 / 4
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
2
50% of wins
DEC
2
50% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 2 (50%) 2 Dec: 2 (50%) 2
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
1 50%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1518
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.5
actual +2 vs expected