HonestElo
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Steve Erceg

Active #52 bantamweight
Elo rating
1532 ±37
LCB 1484
Rank
#52
top 54% of division
UFC record
4-3-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
+1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +3
Last fight
Aug 9, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

7 fights · tap & drag
Jun 10, 2023 — W vs David Dvorak Δ+31Nov 11, 2023 — W vs Alessandro Costa Δ+27Mar 2, 2024 — W vs Matt Schnell Δ+32May 4, 2024 — L vs Alexandre Pantoja Δ-28Aug 17, 2024 — L vs Kai Kara-France Δ-33Mar 29, 2025 — L vs Brandon Moreno Δ-12Aug 9, 2025 — W vs Ode Osbourne Δ+15 14771515155315921630 20242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":161.6,"elo":1531,"date":"2023-06-10","opp":"David Dvorak","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":1,"x":189.9,"y":123.9,"elo":1558,"date":"2023-11-11","opp":"Alessandro Costa","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":2,"x":310.5,"y":79.6,"elo":1590,"date":"2024-03-02","opp":"Matt Schnell","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":3,"x":378.4,"y":118.6,"elo":1562,"date":"2024-05-04","opp":"Alexandre Pantoja","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":4,"x":491.5,"y":164.2,"elo":1529,"date":"2024-08-17","opp":"Kai Kara-France","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":5,"x":732.7,"y":180.4,"elo":1517,"date":"2025-03-29","opp":"Brandon Moreno","result":"L","delta":-12},{"i":6,"x":876,"y":159.8,"elo":1532,"date":"2025-08-09","opp":"Ode Osbourne","result":"W","delta":15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 9, 2025 Ode Osbourne W +15
Mar 29, 2025 Brandon Moreno L -12
Aug 17, 2024 Kai Kara-France L -33
May 4, 2024 Alexandre Pantoja L -28
Mar 2, 2024 Matt Schnell W +32

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.80 avg 3.92
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
46% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.60 avg 3.04
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
52% avg 58%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.09 avg 1.64
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
28% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
63% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.41 avg 0.37
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
25%
1 / 4
Finish rate
KO
1
25% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
75% of wins
KO: 1 (25%) 1 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (75%) 3
Finishes by round
1 total
R1
R2
1 100%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1579
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.3
actual +1 vs expected