HonestElo
← welterweight

Joel Alvarez

Active #12 welterweight · Orthodox · 191 cm · reach 196 cm
Elo rating
1655 ±26
LCB 1621
Rank
#12
top 12% of division
UFC record
8-2-0
KO 4 · Sub 3 · Dec 1
Streak
+4
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +17
Last fight
Oct 11, 2025
W by Decision

Elo history

10 fights · tap & drag
Feb 23, 2019 — L vs Damir Ismagulov Δ-26Jun 1, 2019 — W vs Danilo Belluardo Δ+36Jul 18, 2020 — W vs Joe Duffy Δ+38Oct 24, 2020 — W vs Alexander Yakovlev Δ+29Nov 13, 2021 — W vs Thiago Moises Δ+31Feb 26, 2022 — L vs Arman Tsarukyan Δ-18Jul 22, 2023 — W vs Marc Diakiese Δ+14Aug 3, 2024 — W vs Elves Brener Δ+16Dec 14, 2024 — W vs Drakkar Klose Δ+20Oct 11, 2025 — W vs Vicente Luque Δ+17 14341499156416301695 202020212022202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":203.5,"elo":1474,"date":"2019-02-23","opp":"Damir Ismagulov","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":1,"x":58.5,"y":174.7,"elo":1509,"date":"2019-06-01","opp":"Danilo Belluardo","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":2,"x":203.8,"y":144.1,"elo":1547,"date":"2020-07-18","opp":"Joe Duffy","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":3,"x":238.2,"y":121,"elo":1575,"date":"2020-10-24","opp":"Alexander Yakovlev","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":373.7,"y":95.6,"elo":1607,"date":"2021-11-13","opp":"Thiago Moises","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":5,"x":410.6,"y":110.6,"elo":1588,"date":"2022-02-26","opp":"Arman Tsarukyan","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":6,"x":590.4,"y":98.9,"elo":1603,"date":"2023-07-22","opp":"Marc Diakiese","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":7,"x":723.3,"y":85.8,"elo":1619,"date":"2024-08-03","opp":"Elves Brener","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":770.1,"y":69.9,"elo":1638,"date":"2024-12-14","opp":"Drakkar Klose","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":9,"x":876,"y":56.5,"elo":1655,"date":"2025-10-11","opp":"Vicente Luque","result":"W","delta":17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 11, 2025 Vicente Luque W +17
Dec 14, 2024 Drakkar Klose W +20
Aug 3, 2024 Elves Brener W +16
Jul 22, 2023 Marc Diakiese W +14
Feb 26, 2022 Arman Tsarukyan L -18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.96 avg 3.58
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
55% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.54 avg 2.85
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
54% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.16 avg 1.85
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
33% avg 43%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
47% avg 71%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.95 avg 0.43
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
88%
7 / 8
Finish rate
KO
4
50% of wins
SUB
3
38% of wins
DEC
1
13% of wins
KO: 4 (50%) 4 Sub: 3 (38%) 3 Dec: 1 (13%) 1
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
4 57%
R2
2 29%
R3
1 14%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1594
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.1
actual +3 vs expected