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Joel Alvarez "El Fenomeno"

Active #17 welterweight · age 32 · Orthodox · 6'3" 191 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 77" 196 cm
At a glance
  • Performance of the Night in last fight
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 88% of wins by KO or submission
  • 50% of wins finished in round 1
Elo rating
1589
Global Elo 1631 ±32
Rank
#17
top 22% of division
UFC record
8-3-0
KO 4 · Sub 3 · Dec 1
Streak
-1
Δ90d -24 · Δ1y -7
Last fight
May 9, 2026
Loss by Submission · R2
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 25m
Avg fight time
7:43
Bonuses
3
Fights per year
1.5
Since last fight
1mo

Honest Elo history

11 fights · tap & drag
Feb 23, 2019 — L vs Damir Ismagulov Δ-26Jun 1, 2019 — W vs Danilo Belluardo Δ+36Jul 18, 2020 — W vs Joe Duffy Δ+38Oct 24, 2020 — W vs Alexander Yakovlev Δ+29Nov 13, 2021 — W vs Thiago Moises Δ+31Feb 26, 2022 — L vs Arman Tsarukyan Δ-18Jul 22, 2023 — W vs Marc Diakiese Δ+14Aug 3, 2024 — W vs Elves Brener Δ+16Dec 14, 2024 — W vs Drakkar Klose Δ+20Oct 11, 2025 — W vs Vicente Luque Δ+17May 9, 2026 — L vs Yaroslav Amosov Δ-24 140014501500155016001650 202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":368.9,"elo":1432,"date":"2019-02-23","opp":"Damir Ismagulov","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":1,"x":116.8,"y":323.3,"elo":1468,"date":"2019-06-01","opp":"Danilo Belluardo","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":2,"x":229.8,"y":275.1,"elo":1505,"date":"2020-07-18","opp":"Joe Duffy","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":3,"x":256.6,"y":238.6,"elo":1534,"date":"2020-10-24","opp":"Alexander Yakovlev","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":361.9,"y":198.7,"elo":1565,"date":"2021-11-13","opp":"Thiago Moises","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":5,"x":390.6,"y":222.2,"elo":1547,"date":"2022-02-26","opp":"Arman Tsarukyan","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":6,"x":530.4,"y":203.8,"elo":1561,"date":"2023-07-22","opp":"Marc Diakiese","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":7,"x":633.8,"y":183.2,"elo":1577,"date":"2024-08-03","opp":"Elves Brener","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":8,"x":670.2,"y":158.1,"elo":1597,"date":"2024-12-14","opp":"Drakkar Klose","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":9,"x":752.6,"y":136.8,"elo":1613,"date":"2025-10-11","opp":"Vicente Luque","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":10,"x":810,"y":167.6,"elo":1589,"date":"2026-05-09","opp":"Yaroslav Amosov","result":"L","delta":-24}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 9, 2026 Yaroslav Amosov L -24
Oct 11, 2025 Vicente Luque W +17
Dec 14, 2024 Drakkar Klose W +20
Aug 3, 2024 Elves Brener W +16
Jul 22, 2023 Marc Diakiese W +14

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
88%
7 / 8
Finish rate
KO
4
50% of wins
SUB
3
38% of wins
DEC
1
13% of wins
KO: 4 (50%) 4 Sub: 3 (38%) 3 Dec: 1 (13%) 1
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
4 57%
R2
2 29%
R3
1 14%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 384 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
69% Head
  • Head 69%
  • Body 20%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
74% Distance
  • Distance 74%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 14%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
67%
of losses by finish
2 of 3 · usually R2
1 KO/TKO 1 Sub 1 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1582
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
2
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Vicente Luque
Elo 1651 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
5.7
+2.3 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 11 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1529
1547
Notable wins
Vicente Luque 1651 Drakkar Klose 1641

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Kamaru Usman
#2 · Elo 1691
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Ian Machado Garry
#5 · Elo 1669
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Joel Alvarez on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.