HonestElo
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Gregory Rodrigues

Active #9 middleweight · Orthodox · 191 cm · reach 191 cm
Elo rating
1649 ±34
LCB 1605
Rank
#9
top 10% of division
UFC record
10-3-0
KO 7 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
+3
Δ90d +16 · Δ1y +48
Last fight
Mar 7, 2026
W by KO

Elo history

13 fights · tap & drag
Jun 5, 2021 — W vs Dusko Todorovic Δ+28Oct 23, 2021 — W vs Junyong Park Δ+35Feb 26, 2022 — L vs Armen Petrosyan Δ-34Jun 18, 2022 — W vs Julian Marquez Δ+36Sep 17, 2022 — W vs Chidi Njokuani Δ+33Jan 21, 2023 — L vs Brunno Ferreira Δ-23Aug 19, 2023 — W vs Denis Tiuliulin Δ+13Feb 10, 2024 — W vs Brad Tavares Δ+20Jul 27, 2024 — W vs Christian Leroy Duncan Δ+14Feb 15, 2025 — L vs Jared Cannonier Δ-19Jun 28, 2025 — W vs Jack Hermansson Δ+19Nov 15, 2025 — W vs Roman Kopylov Δ+14Mar 7, 2026 — W vs Brunno Ferreira Δ+16 14881538158916391689 20222023202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":193.8,"elo":1528,"date":"2021-06-05","opp":"Dusko Todorovic","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":1,"x":92.7,"y":157.2,"elo":1563,"date":"2021-10-23","opp":"Junyong Park","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":2,"x":154.5,"y":193,"elo":1529,"date":"2022-02-26","opp":"Armen Petrosyan","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":3,"x":209.5,"y":155.1,"elo":1565,"date":"2022-06-18","opp":"Julian Marquez","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":4,"x":254.2,"y":120.4,"elo":1598,"date":"2022-09-17","opp":"Chidi Njokuani","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":5,"x":316,"y":145.1,"elo":1574,"date":"2023-01-21","opp":"Brunno Ferreira","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":6,"x":419.1,"y":131.4,"elo":1587,"date":"2023-08-19","opp":"Denis Tiuliulin","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":7,"x":505,"y":110.8,"elo":1607,"date":"2024-02-10","opp":"Brad Tavares","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":8,"x":587.4,"y":96.2,"elo":1621,"date":"2024-07-27","opp":"Christian Leroy Duncan","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":9,"x":687,"y":116.8,"elo":1601,"date":"2025-02-15","opp":"Jared Cannonier","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":10,"x":752.3,"y":97.1,"elo":1620,"date":"2025-06-28","opp":"Jack Hermansson","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":11,"x":821,"y":82.6,"elo":1634,"date":"2025-11-15","opp":"Roman Kopylov","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":12,"x":876,"y":66.2,"elo":1649,"date":"2026-03-07","opp":"Brunno Ferreira","result":"W","delta":16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 7, 2026 Brunno Ferreira W +16
Nov 15, 2025 Roman Kopylov W +14
Jun 28, 2025 Jack Hermansson W +19
Feb 15, 2025 Jared Cannonier L -19
Jul 27, 2024 Christian Leroy Duncan W +14

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.59 avg 3.81
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
51% avg 52%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.92 avg 3.04
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
51% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.61 avg 1.41
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
36% avg 45%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
75% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.32 avg 0.48
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
70%
7 / 10
Finish rate
KO
7
70% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
30% of wins
KO: 7 (70%) 7 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (30%) 3
Finishes by round
7 total
R1
4 57%
R2
2 29%
R3
1 14%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1583
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
7.0
actual +3 vs expected