HonestElo
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Matt Brown

Inactive · Orthodox · 183 cm · reach 191 cm
Elo rating
1576 ±38
LCB 1527
Rank
—
—
UFC record
17-13-0
KO 13 · Sub 2 · Dec 2
Streak
+1
Δ90d -5 · Δ1y -5
Last fight
May 13, 2023
W by KO

Elo history

30 fights · tap & drag
Jun 21, 2008 — W vs Matt Arroyo Δ+36Sep 6, 2008 — L vs Dong Hyun Kim Δ-29Nov 15, 2008 — W vs Ryan Thomas Δ+30Mar 7, 2009 — W vs Pete Sell Δ+24Nov 14, 2009 — W vs James Wilks Δ+31Mar 27, 2010 — L vs Ricardo Almeida Δ-21Jul 3, 2010 — L vs Chris Lytle Δ-21Nov 20, 2010 — L vs Brian Foster Δ-21Jun 26, 2011 — W vs John Howard Δ+17Nov 19, 2011 — L vs Seth Baczynski Δ-20Feb 4, 2012 — W vs Chris Cope Δ+17Apr 21, 2012 — W vs Stephen Thompson Δ+16Jun 22, 2012 — W vs Luis Ramos Δ+14Dec 8, 2012 — W vs Mike Swick Δ+22Apr 20, 2013 — W vs Jordan Mein Δ+15Aug 17, 2013 — W vs Mike Pyle Δ+18May 10, 2014 — W vs Erick Silva Δ+15Jul 26, 2014 — L vs Robbie Lawler Δ-18Mar 14, 2015 — L vs Johny Hendricks Δ-14Jul 11, 2015 — W vs Tim Means Δ+15May 14, 2016 — L vs Demian Maia Δ-15Jul 30, 2016 — L vs Jake Ellenberger Δ-21Dec 10, 2016 — L vs Donald Cerrone Δ-11Nov 11, 2017 — W vs Diego Sanchez Δ+20Dec 14, 2019 — W vs Ben Saunders Δ+14May 16, 2020 — L vs Miguel Baeza Δ-23Jan 16, 2021 — L vs Carlos Condit Δ-17Jun 19, 2021 — W vs Dhiego Lima Δ+12Mar 26, 2022 — L vs Bryan Barberena Δ-18May 13, 2023 — W vs Court McGee Δ+15 14671521157516281682 20112014201720202023 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":167.7,"elo":1536,"date":"2008-06-21","opp":"Matt Arroyo","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":1,"x":36.1,"y":196.6,"elo":1507,"date":"2008-09-06","opp":"Dong Hyun Kim","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":2,"x":47,"y":167.4,"elo":1537,"date":"2008-11-15","opp":"Ryan Thomas","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":3,"x":64.6,"y":143.8,"elo":1561,"date":"2009-03-07","opp":"Pete Sell","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":4,"x":104,"y":113,"elo":1592,"date":"2009-11-14","opp":"James Wilks","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":5,"x":124.9,"y":133.7,"elo":1571,"date":"2010-03-27","opp":"Ricardo Almeida","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":6,"x":140.2,"y":154.9,"elo":1549,"date":"2010-07-03","opp":"Chris Lytle","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":7,"x":162.2,"y":175.6,"elo":1528,"date":"2010-11-20","opp":"Brian Foster","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":8,"x":196.3,"y":158.6,"elo":1546,"date":"2011-06-26","opp":"John Howard","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":9,"x":219.2,"y":178.6,"elo":1525,"date":"2011-11-19","opp":"Seth Baczynski","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":10,"x":231.2,"y":162.1,"elo":1542,"date":"2012-02-04","opp":"Chris Cope","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":11,"x":243.3,"y":146.7,"elo":1558,"date":"2012-04-21","opp":"Stephen Thompson","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":12,"x":253,"y":133.3,"elo":1571,"date":"2012-06-22","opp":"Luis Ramos","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":13,"x":279.5,"y":111.2,"elo":1594,"date":"2012-12-08","opp":"Mike Swick","result":"W","delta":22},{"i":14,"x":300.3,"y":96,"elo":1609,"date":"2013-04-20","opp":"Jordan Mein","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":15,"x":319,"y":78.3,"elo":1627,"date":"2013-08-17","opp":"Mike Pyle","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":16,"x":360.6,"y":63.4,"elo":1642,"date":"2014-05-10","opp":"Erick Silva","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":17,"x":372.7,"y":81.5,"elo":1624,"date":"2014-07-26","opp":"Robbie Lawler","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":18,"x":408.9,"y":95.4,"elo":1610,"date":"2015-03-14","opp":"Johny Hendricks","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":19,"x":427.5,"y":80.6,"elo":1625,"date":"2015-07-11","opp":"Tim Means","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":20,"x":475.8,"y":95.5,"elo":1610,"date":"2016-05-14","opp":"Demian Maia","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":21,"x":487.8,"y":115.8,"elo":1589,"date":"2016-07-30","opp":"Jake Ellenberger","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":22,"x":508.7,"y":127,"elo":1578,"date":"2016-12-10","opp":"Donald Cerrone","result":"L","delta":-11},{"i":23,"x":561.3,"y":107.9,"elo":1597,"date":"2017-11-11","opp":"Diego Sanchez","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":24,"x":680.8,"y":93.9,"elo":1611,"date":"2019-12-14","opp":"Ben Saunders","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":25,"x":704.9,"y":116.3,"elo":1589,"date":"2020-05-16","opp":"Miguel Baeza","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":26,"x":743.3,"y":133.4,"elo":1571,"date":"2021-01-16","opp":"Carlos Condit","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":27,"x":767.4,"y":121.6,"elo":1583,"date":"2021-06-19","opp":"Dhiego Lima","result":"W","delta":12},{"i":28,"x":811.3,"y":139.1,"elo":1565,"date":"2022-03-26","opp":"Bryan Barberena","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":29,"x":876,"y":124,"elo":1581,"date":"2023-05-13","opp":"Court McGee","result":"W","delta":15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 13, 2023 Court McGee W +15
Mar 26, 2022 Bryan Barberena L -18
Jun 19, 2021 Dhiego Lima W +12
Jan 16, 2021 Carlos Condit L -17
May 16, 2020 Miguel Baeza L -23

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.10 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
55% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.41 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
55% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.39 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
47% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
64% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.07 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
88%
15 / 17
Finish rate
KO
13
76% of wins
SUB
2
12% of wins
DEC
2
12% of wins
KO: 13 (76%) 13 Sub: 2 (12%) 2 Dec: 2 (12%) 2
Finishes by round
15 total
R1
5 33%
R2
8 53%
R3
2 13%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1517
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
16.1
actual +1 vs expected