Elves Brener vs Josiah Harrell — Honest Elo matchup
Other bouts 11
- 1bantamweight MainRaul Rosas Jr.vsRaoni Barcelos
- 2women's bantamweightNorma DumontvsAilin Perez
- 3Not linkedlight heavyweightLuis HernandezvsSedriques Dumas
- 4Not linkedbantamweightMahammadali OsmanlivsIlimbek Akylbek
- 5Not linkedwomen's strawweightMelissa AmayavsTina Black
- 6bantamweightBrady HiestandvsRinya Nakamura
- 7middleweightRodolfo VieiravsRobert Bryczek
- 8light heavyweightRodolfo BellatovsChristian Edwards
- 10bantamweightMontel JacksonvsRicky Simon
- 11bantamweightJohn CastanedavsAlatengheili
- 12women's strawweightVanessa DemopoulosvsYazmin Jauregui
Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Elves Brener 22.1% · Josiah Harrell 77.9%
Pure Elo pre-fight: Elves Brener 47.8% · Josiah Harrell 52.2%
The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.
Independent UFC analytics
Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.
Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 8
Notable
Fewer than 4 UFC fights — the rating is provisional and the uncertainty band is wide.
Tale of the tape
| 4-3-0 | UFC record | 0-2-0 |
| KO 3 · Sub 0 | Finishes | KO 0 · Sub 0 |
| +1 | Streak | -2 |
| 29 | Age | 27 |
| 5'10" 178 cm | Height | 5'7" 170 cm |
| 72" 183 cm | Reach | 68" 173 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| 1530 | Global Elo | 1475 |
| 1484 | Elo rating | 1449 |
Elves Brener — Notable ▼
- Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
- 75% of wins by KO/TKO
- 50% of wins finished in round 1
Josiah Harrell — Notable ▼
Elves Brener — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 386 landed total · career
- Head 56%
- Body 19%
- Leg 24%
- Distance 92%
- Clinch 3%
- Ground 5%
Josiah Harrell — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 16 landed total · career
- Head 38%
- Body 31%
- Leg 31%
- Distance 100%
- Clinch 0%
- Ground 0%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Terrance McKinney7.95
- 2Gauge Young7.53
- 3Esteban Ribovics7.46
- 4Billy Quarantillo6.80
- 5Chris Padilla6.67
- 1Marquel Mederos60%
- 2Benoit Saint Denis58%
- 3Quillan Salkilld58%
- 4Justin Gaethje58%
- 5Anshul Jubli57%
- 1Kaue Fernandes1.63
- 2Fares Ziam1.63
- 3Nurullo Aliev1.67
- 4Arman Tsarukyan1.77
- 5Joe Solecki1.90
- 1Matheus Camilo66%
- 2Fares Ziam63%
- 3Ilia Topuria62%
- 4Nasrat Haqparast62%
- 5King Green61%
- 1Quillan Salkilld5.74
- 2Mateusz Gamrot5.08
- 3Benoit Saint Denis4.15
- 4Grant Dawson3.62
- 5Nurullo Aliev3.50
- 1Kaue Fernandes100%
- 2Rafael Fiziev71%
- 3Manuel Torres67%
- 4Esteban Ribovics67%
- 5Rongzhu63%
- 1Trey Ogden100%
- 2Matheus Camilo100%
- 3Ottman Azaitar100%
- 4Anshul Jubli100%
- 5Ilia Topuria95%
- 1Charles Oliveira2.59
- 2Terrance McKinney2.18
- 3Chase Hooper2.05
- 4Benoit Saint Denis1.73
- 5Jim Miller1.72
- 1Grant Dawson9.76
- 2Nurullo Aliev8.80
- 3Benoit Saint Denis7.08
- 4Terrance McKinney6.77
- 5Claudio Puelles6.69
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1532 (Elves Brener) vs 1540 (Josiah Harrell).
- Sep 26, 2026
- Aug 2, 2025
- Aug 3, 2024
- May 4, 2024
- Nov 4, 2023
- Sep 26, 2026
- Feb 21, 2026