Other bouts 7
- 1bantamweight MainRaul Rosas Jr.vsRaoni Barcelos
- 2women's bantamweightNorma DumontvsAilin Perez
- 3bantamweightMontel JacksonvsRicky Simon
- 4women's strawweightYazmin JaureguivsVanessa Demopoulos
- 6lightweightElves BrenervsJosiah Harrell
- 7welterweightMickey GallvsSedriques Dumas
- 8featherweightJohn CastanedavsAlatengheili
Honest Elo Meter
20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty
By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.
Share your result
Pick how you'd like to share. Copy image works in most chat / social apps — copy here, then paste into the post directly. Download saves a PNG you can attach manually.
Independent UFC analytics
Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.
Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.
Other fights on this card · 7
Notable
Has never been finished — the only loss went to the scorecards.
Has never been finished — the only loss went to the scorecards.
No stable weight basis for this pairing (catchweight history) — no size adjustment applied.
Fewer than 4 UFC fights — the rating is provisional and the uncertainty band is wide.
Tale of the tape
| 2-1-1 | UFC record | 0-1-0 |
| KO 2 · Sub 0 | Finishes | KO 0 · Sub 0 |
| +1 | Streak | -1 |
| 30 | Age | 27 |
| 6'3" 191 cm | Height | 6'5" 196 cm |
| 75" 191 cm | Reach | 78" 198 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| 1538 | Global Elo | 1482 |
| 1497 | Elo rating | 1456 |
Rodolfo Bellato — Notable ▼
- Performance of the Night in last fight
- Has never been finished — durability signal
- Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
- 100% of wins by KO/TKO
Christian Edwards — Notable ▼
- Has never been finished — durability signal
Rodolfo Bellato — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 252 landed total · career
- Head 61%
- Body 20%
- Leg 19%
- Distance 63%
- Clinch 8%
- Ground 29%
Christian Edwards — Striking profile
Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 36 landed total · career
- Head 36%
- Body 47%
- Leg 17%
- Distance 75%
- Clinch 25%
- Ground 0%
Performance comparison
Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.
- 1Iwo Baraniewski11.29
- 2Zhang Mingyang6.64
- 3Carlos Ulberg6.61
- 4Navajo Stirling6.41
- 5Paulo Costa6.15
- 1Diyar Nurgozhay63%
- 2Paulo Costa59%
- 3Rodolfo Bellato59%
- 4Zhang Mingyang59%
- 5Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev58%
- 1Oumar Sy1.87
- 2Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev2.25
- 3Navajo Stirling2.46
- 4Magomed Ankalaev2.49
- 5Austen Lane2.56
- 1Oumar Sy67%
- 2Caio Machado62%
- 3Navajo Stirling59%
- 4Robert Whittaker59%
- 5Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev58%
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev12.68
- 2Jimmy Crute4.64
- 3Julius Walker4.07
- 4Ion Cutelaba4.02
- 5Bruno Lopes2.91
- 1Iwo Baraniewski100%
- 2Zhang Mingyang100%
- 3Julius Walker100%
- 4Bruno Lopes100%
- 5Rodolfo Bellato92%
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev8.45
- 2Jimmy Crute2.13
- 3Nikita Krylov1.14
- 4Billy Elekana0.85
- 5Tuco Tokkos0.70
- 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev10.07
- 2Julius Walker8.17
- 3Austen Lane6.24
- 4Jimmy Crute6.02
- 5Nikita Krylov5.30
Division-adjusted profile
each axis = percentile in own divisionThe size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.
Finish & durability
How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.
Strength of schedule in UFC
Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1521 (Rodolfo Bellato) vs 1534 (Christian Edwards).
- Mar 7, 2026
- Sep 27, 2025
- Jun 14, 2025
- Feb 8, 2025
- Dec 2, 2023
- May 16, 2026