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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Size

Cross-division matchup: the model gives Demopoulos +54 Elo for a ~10 lb representative gap. Toggle it off to compare pure skill.

Form

Both enter off a loss (Sep 2024 / Jun 2025).

Jauregui

Hasn't fought since Sep 2024.

Jauregui

Reach advantage of ~5".

Tale of the tape

3-2-0 UFC record 5-5-0
KO 1 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 1
-1 Streak -3
27 Age 37
5'3" 160 cm Height 5'2" 157 cm
64" 163 cm Reach 59" 150 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1509 Global Elo 1503
1458 Elo rating 1453
Yazmin Jauregui — Notable
At a glance
Vanessa Demopoulos — Notable
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround

Yazmin Jauregui — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 282 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
62% Head
  • Head 62%
  • Body 17%
  • Leg 21%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
82% Distance
  • Distance 82%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 8%

Vanessa Demopoulos — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 451 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
64% Head
  • Head 64%
  • Body 25%
  • Leg 10%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
75% Distance
  • Distance 75%
  • Clinch 14%
  • Ground 11%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

6.64
3.58
div avg 4.34
39%
40%
div avg 48%
5.25
5.66
div avg 3.78
55%
41%
div avg 54%
0.00
0.36
div avg 1.99
0%
10%
div avg 47%
100%
28%
div avg 66%
0.00
0.24
div avg 0.56
1
2
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Yazmin Jauregui
33% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Vanessa Demopoulos
finished 20%
1 of 5 losses
Vanessa Demopoulos
20% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 1
can finish?
Yazmin Jauregui
finished 100%
2 of 2 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1488 (Yazmin Jauregui) vs 1507 (Vanessa Demopoulos).

Yazmin Jauregui red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1488
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Iasmin Lucindo
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
2.8
+0.2 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1500
1499
Vanessa Demopoulos blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1507
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win
Jinh Yu Frey
Elo 1501 at fight time
Expected wins
5.3
−0.3 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 10 fights
1536
1499
Corner A recent form
Yazmin Jauregui
Corner B recent form
Vanessa Demopoulos
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Yazmin Jauregui & Vanessa Demopoulos on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.