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✓ Raul Rosas Jr. won · by TKO · R5

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos — Honest Elo matchup

bantamweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night Nevada
Sep 26, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Raul Rosas Jr.
#11 7-1-0
Elo 1597
VS
Corner B
Raoni Barcelos
#13 11-5-0
Elo 1580
Final result · recorded Sep 27, 2026
Raul Rosas Jr.
defeated Raoni Barcelos by TKO in round 5

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Raul Rosas Jr. 63.8% · Raoni Barcelos 36.2%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Raul Rosas Jr. 44.8% · Raoni Barcelos 55.2%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 8
Norma Dumont vs Ailin Perez women's bantamweight Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura bantamweight Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek middleweight Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards light heavyweight Elves Brener vs Josiah Harrell lightweight Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon bantamweight John Castaneda vs Alatengheili bantamweight Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui women's strawweight

Notable

Jr.

Has never been finished — the only loss went to the scorecards.

Jr.

On a 6-fight win streak.

Tale of the tape

7-1-0 UFC record 11-5-0
KO 2 · Sub 2 Finishes KO 2 · Sub 2
+6 Streak -1
22 Age 39
5'9" 175 cm Height 5'7" 170 cm
67" 170 cm Reach 67" 170 cm
Switch Stance Orthodox
1631 Global Elo 1627
1597 Elo rating 1580
Raul Rosas Jr. — Notable ▼
At a glance
Raoni Barcelos — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • Fight of the Night in last fight
  • 89% takedown defense in last 3 fights
  • UFC veteran since 2018

Raul Rosas Jr. — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 208 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
72% Head
  • Head 72%
  • Body 13%
  • Leg 15%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
75% Distance
  • Distance 75%
  • Clinch 9%
  • Ground 16%

Raoni Barcelos — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1045 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
73% Head
  • Head 73%
  • Body 15%
  • Leg 12%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
76% Distance
  • Distance 76%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 17%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

2.25
4.77
div avg 4.16
43%
52%
div avg 50%
2.40
4.34
div avg 3.34
49%
60%
div avg 58%
5.34
2.88
div avg 1.99
53%
33%
div avg 39%
56%
86%
div avg 67%
0.65
0.96
div avg 0.45
7
4
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Raul Rosas Jr.
57% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 2
can finish?
Raoni Barcelos
finished 40%
2 of 5 losses
Raoni Barcelos
36% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 2
can finish?
Raul Rosas Jr.
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Raoni Barcelos has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1604 vs 1545, 2 quality wins to 2.

Raul Rosas Jr. red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1545
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
2
of 7 UFC wins
Toughest win
Raoni Barcelos
Elo 1647 at fight time
Expected wins
4.3
+2.6 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 8 fights
1443
1647
Notable wins
Raoni Barcelos 1647 Rob Font 1615
Raoni Barcelos blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1604
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
2
of 11 UFC wins
Toughest win
Montel Jackson
Elo 1616 at fight time
Expected wins
9.0
+2.0 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 16 fights
1476
1611
Notable wins
Montel Jackson 1616 Cody Garbrandt 1603
Corner A recent form
Raul Rosas Jr.
Corner B recent form
Raoni Barcelos
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Raul Rosas Jr. & Raoni Barcelos on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.