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✓ Brady Hiestand won · by Submission · R2

Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura — Honest Elo matchup

bantamweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night Nevada
Sep 26, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
View full event card
Corner A
Brady Hiestand
#23 4-1-0
Elo 1557
VS
Corner B
Rinya Nakamura
#34 4-2-0
Elo 1507
Final result · recorded Sep 26, 2026
Brady Hiestand
defeated Rinya Nakamura by Submission in round 2

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Brady Hiestand 25.3% · Rinya Nakamura 74.7%

Pure Elo pre-fight: Brady Hiestand 47.8% · Rinya Nakamura 52.2%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 8
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos Main event · bantamweight Norma Dumont vs Ailin Perez women's bantamweight Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek middleweight Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards light heavyweight Elves Brener vs Josiah Harrell lightweight Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon bantamweight John Castaneda vs Alatengheili bantamweight Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui women's strawweight

Notable

Hiestand

Has never been finished — the only loss went to the scorecards.

Tale of the tape

4-1-0 UFC record 4-2-0
KO 1 · Sub 2 Finishes KO 2 · Sub 0
+4 Streak -1
27 Age 31
5'8" 173 cm Height 5'7" 170 cm
71" 180 cm Reach 68" 173 cm
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
1601 Global Elo 1559
1557 Elo rating 1507
Brady Hiestand — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 4-fight UFC win streak
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • 2 submissions in a row
  • 3 finishes in a row
Rinya Nakamura — Notable ▼
At a glance

Brady Hiestand — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 178 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
75% Head
  • Head 75%
  • Body 18%
  • Leg 7%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
83% Distance
  • Distance 83%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 6%

Rinya Nakamura — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 157 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
54% Head
  • Head 54%
  • Body 24%
  • Leg 22%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
61% Distance
  • Distance 61%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 29%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

2.72
2.82
div avg 4.16
50%
51%
div avg 50%
3.67
1.74
div avg 3.34
52%
62%
div avg 58%
4.13
2.15
div avg 1.99
38%
57%
div avg 39%
62%
100%
div avg 67%
1.38
1.08
div avg 0.45
7
7
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Brady Hiestand
75% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 2
can finish?
Rinya Nakamura
finished 50%
1 of 2 losses
Rinya Nakamura
50% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Brady Hiestand
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1518 (Brady Hiestand) vs 1499 (Rinya Nakamura).

Brady Hiestand red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1518
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Rinya Nakamura
Elo 1578 at fight time
Expected wins
2.5
+1.5 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1500
1578
Rinya Nakamura blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1499
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Toshiomi Kazama
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins
3.5
+0.6 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1500
1567

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • W
    Fernie Garcia
    W
    Decision - Unanimous
    Decision - Unanimous
    Nov 19, 2022
    Aug 26, 2023
Corner A recent form
Brady Hiestand
Corner B recent form
Rinya Nakamura
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Brady Hiestand & Rinya Nakamura on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.