HonestElo
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Aleksandar Rakic

Active #22 light heavyweight · Orthodox · 193 cm · reach 198 cm
Elo rating
1560 ±35
LCB 1514
Rank
#22
top 46% of division
UFC record
6-5-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 · Dec 4
Streak
-4
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -14
Last fight
Oct 25, 2025
L by KO

Elo history

11 fights · tap & drag
Sep 2, 2017 — W vs Francimar Barroso Δ+32Jul 22, 2018 — W vs Justin Ledet Δ+33Dec 8, 2018 — W vs Devin Clark Δ+29Jun 1, 2019 — W vs Jimi Manuwa Δ+30Dec 21, 2019 — L vs Volkan Oezdemir Δ-34Aug 29, 2020 — W vs Anthony Smith Δ+17Mar 6, 2021 — W vs Thiago Santos Δ+17May 14, 2022 — L vs Jan Blachowicz Δ-18Apr 13, 2024 — L vs Jiri Prochazka Δ-19Oct 26, 2024 — L vs Magomed Ankalaev Δ-12Oct 25, 2025 — L vs Azamat Murzakanov Δ-14 14921535157716201663 2019202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":186.5,"elo":1532,"date":"2017-09-02","opp":"Francimar Barroso","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":1,"x":116.5,"y":145.5,"elo":1565,"date":"2018-07-22","opp":"Justin Ledet","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":156.3,"y":110,"elo":1594,"date":"2018-12-08","opp":"Devin Clark","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":3,"x":206.4,"y":73.5,"elo":1623,"date":"2019-06-01","opp":"Jimi Manuwa","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":4,"x":264.6,"y":115.8,"elo":1589,"date":"2019-12-21","opp":"Volkan Oezdemir","result":"L","delta":-34},{"i":5,"x":336.7,"y":95.2,"elo":1606,"date":"2020-08-29","opp":"Anthony Smith","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":390.9,"y":74.4,"elo":1622,"date":"2021-03-06","opp":"Thiago Santos","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":7,"x":515.2,"y":96.2,"elo":1605,"date":"2022-05-14","opp":"Jan Blachowicz","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":8,"x":715.6,"y":119.2,"elo":1586,"date":"2024-04-13","opp":"Jiri Prochazka","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":9,"x":771.8,"y":133.7,"elo":1574,"date":"2024-10-26","opp":"Magomed Ankalaev","result":"L","delta":-12},{"i":10,"x":876,"y":151.6,"elo":1560,"date":"2025-10-25","opp":"Azamat Murzakanov","result":"L","delta":-14}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 25, 2025 Azamat Murzakanov L -14
Oct 26, 2024 Magomed Ankalaev L -12
Apr 13, 2024 Jiri Prochazka L -19
May 14, 2022 Jan Blachowicz L -18
Mar 6, 2021 Thiago Santos W +17

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.73 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
50% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.58 avg 3.40
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
51% avg 49%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.58 avg 0.72
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
22% avg 39%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
86% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.12 avg 0.37
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
33%
2 / 6
Finish rate
KO
2
33% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
4
67% of wins
KO: 2 (33%) 2 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 4 (67%) 4
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
2 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1638
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.3
actual +1 vs expected