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Aaron Riley

Inactive · age 45 · Southpaw · 5'8" 173 cm · 155 lb 70 kg · reach 69" 175 cm
At a glance
  • UFC veteran since 2002
Elo rating
1432
Global Elo 1482 ±38
Rank
—
—
UFC record
3-6-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
-2
Δ90d +19 · Δ1y +19
Last fight
Jul 27, 2013
Loss by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 35m
Avg fight time
10:36
Bonuses
1
Fights per year
0.8
Since last fight
12y 11mo

Honest Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
May 10, 2002 — L vs Robbie Lawler Δ-29Jan 16, 2006 — L vs Spencer Fisher Δ-24Nov 15, 2008 — W vs Jorge Gurgel Δ+33Mar 7, 2009 — L vs Shane Nelson Δ-29Aug 8, 2009 — W vs Shane Nelson Δ+37Nov 14, 2009 — L vs Ross Pearson Δ-14May 29, 2010 — W vs Joe Brammer Δ+16Sep 24, 2011 — L vs Tony Ferguson Δ-14Jul 27, 2013 — L vs Justin Salas Δ-15 1380140014201440146014801500 20042006200820102012 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":247.3,"elo":1441,"date":"2002-05-10","opp":"Robbie Lawler","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":1,"x":326.8,"y":310.5,"elo":1417,"date":"2006-01-16","opp":"Spencer Fisher","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":2,"x":508.5,"y":221.5,"elo":1451,"date":"2008-11-15","opp":"Jorge Gurgel","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":3,"x":528.2,"y":297.7,"elo":1422,"date":"2009-03-07","opp":"Shane Nelson","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":4,"x":555.3,"y":198.3,"elo":1459,"date":"2009-08-08","opp":"Shane Nelson","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":5,"x":572.5,"y":235.3,"elo":1446,"date":"2009-11-14","opp":"Ross Pearson","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":6,"x":607,"y":193.5,"elo":1461,"date":"2010-05-29","opp":"Joe Brammer","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":7,"x":691.9,"y":230,"elo":1448,"date":"2011-09-24","opp":"Tony Ferguson","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":8,"x":810,"y":270.5,"elo":1432,"date":"2013-07-27","opp":"Justin Salas","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 27, 2013 Justin Salas L -15
Sep 24, 2011 Tony Ferguson L -14
May 29, 2010 Joe Brammer W +16
Nov 14, 2009 Ross Pearson L -14
Aug 8, 2009 Shane Nelson W +37

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 3
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (100%) 3

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 314 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
47% Head
  • Head 47%
  • Body 29%
  • Leg 24%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
61% Distance
  • Distance 61%
  • Clinch 32%
  • Ground 7%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
67%
of losses by finish
4 of 6 · usually R1
4 KO/TKO 0 Sub 2 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1520
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Shane Nelson
Elo 1557 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
4.0
−1.0 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 9 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1496

Top lightweight

See full rankings →
Ilia Topuria
#1 · Elo 1686
Charles Oliveira
#2 · Elo 1686
Max Holloway
#3 · Elo 1676
Justin Gaethje C
#4 · Elo 1670
Arman Tsarukyan
#5 · Elo 1661
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Aaron Riley on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.