HonestElo
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Aaron Riley

Inactive · Southpaw · 173 cm · reach 175 cm
Elo rating
1482 ±35
LCB 1436
Rank
—
—
UFC record
3-6-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
-2
Δ90d +20 · Δ1y +20
Last fight
Jul 27, 2013
L by Decision

Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
May 10, 2002 — L vs Robbie Lawler Δ-29Jan 16, 2006 — L vs Spencer Fisher Δ-24Nov 15, 2008 — W vs Jorge Gurgel Δ+33Mar 7, 2009 — L vs Shane Nelson Δ-29Aug 8, 2009 — W vs Shane Nelson Δ+37Nov 14, 2009 — L vs Ross Pearson Δ-14May 29, 2010 — W vs Joe Brammer Δ+16Sep 24, 2011 — L vs Tony Ferguson Δ-14Jul 27, 2013 — L vs Justin Salas Δ-15 14081438146915001531 20042006200820102012 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":127,"elo":1471,"date":"2002-05-10","opp":"Robbie Lawler","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":1,"x":304.2,"y":167.6,"elo":1448,"date":"2006-01-16","opp":"Spencer Fisher","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":2,"x":519.3,"y":110.4,"elo":1481,"date":"2008-11-15","opp":"Jorge Gurgel","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":3,"x":542.6,"y":159.3,"elo":1452,"date":"2009-03-07","opp":"Shane Nelson","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":4,"x":574.6,"y":95.5,"elo":1490,"date":"2009-08-08","opp":"Shane Nelson","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":5,"x":595,"y":119.3,"elo":1476,"date":"2009-11-14","opp":"Ross Pearson","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":6,"x":635.8,"y":92.4,"elo":1491,"date":"2010-05-29","opp":"Joe Brammer","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":7,"x":736.2,"y":115.9,"elo":1478,"date":"2011-09-24","opp":"Tony Ferguson","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":8,"x":876,"y":141.9,"elo":1463,"date":"2013-07-27","opp":"Justin Salas","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 27, 2013 Justin Salas L -15
Sep 24, 2011 Tony Ferguson L -14
May 29, 2010 Joe Brammer W +16
Nov 14, 2009 Ross Pearson L -14
Aug 8, 2009 Shane Nelson W +37

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.14 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
35% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.73 avg 3.34
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
61% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.20 avg 1.60
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
35% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
61% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.15 avg 0.54
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 3
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (100%) 3

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1520
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.0
actual -1 vs expected