HonestElo
← welterweight

Rory MacDonald "Red King"

Inactive · age 36 · Orthodox · 6'0" 183 cm · 170 lb 77 kg · reach 76" 193 cm
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • UFC veteran since 2010
Elo rating
1555
Global Elo 1606 ±39
Rank
—
—
UFC record
9-4-0
KO 3 · Sub 1 · Dec 5
Streak
-2
Δ90d -15 · Δ1y -15
Last fight
Jun 18, 2016
Loss by Decision · R5
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 58m
Avg fight time
13:42
Title fights
0-1
Bonuses
3
Fights per year
2.0
Since last fight
10y

Honest Elo history

13 fights · tap & drag
Jan 11, 2010 — W vs Mike Guymon Δ+33Jun 12, 2010 — L vs Carlos Condit Δ-35Apr 30, 2011 — W vs Nate Diaz Δ+38Aug 6, 2011 — W vs Mike Pyle Δ+35Apr 21, 2012 — W vs Che Mills Δ+30Dec 8, 2012 — W vs BJ Penn Δ+18Jul 27, 2013 — W vs Jake Ellenberger Δ+17Nov 16, 2013 — L vs Robbie Lawler Δ-19Feb 22, 2014 — W vs Demian Maia Δ+18Jun 14, 2014 — W vs Tyron Woodley Δ+14Oct 4, 2014 — W vs Tarec Saffiedine Δ+13Jul 11, 2015 — L vs Robbie Lawler Δ-25Jun 18, 2016 — L vs Stephen Thompson Δ-15 140014501500155016001650 201120122013201420152016 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":323.1,"elo":1468,"date":"2010-01-11","opp":"Mike Guymon","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":136.6,"y":368.4,"elo":1433,"date":"2010-06-12","opp":"Carlos Condit","result":"L","delta":-35},{"i":2,"x":235.2,"y":319.1,"elo":1471,"date":"2011-04-30","opp":"Nate Diaz","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":3,"x":265.3,"y":273.9,"elo":1506,"date":"2011-08-06","opp":"Mike Pyle","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":4,"x":344.6,"y":235.9,"elo":1536,"date":"2012-04-21","opp":"Che Mills","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":5,"x":415.4,"y":213.4,"elo":1554,"date":"2012-12-08","opp":"BJ Penn","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":486.2,"y":191.6,"elo":1571,"date":"2013-07-27","opp":"Jake Ellenberger","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":7,"x":520.5,"y":216.2,"elo":1551,"date":"2013-11-16","opp":"Robbie Lawler","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":8,"x":550.5,"y":193.6,"elo":1569,"date":"2014-02-22","opp":"Demian Maia","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":584.8,"y":176,"elo":1583,"date":"2014-06-14","opp":"Tyron Woodley","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":10,"x":619.1,"y":159.9,"elo":1595,"date":"2014-10-04","opp":"Tarec Saffiedine","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":11,"x":704.9,"y":191.6,"elo":1571,"date":"2015-07-11","opp":"Robbie Lawler","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":12,"x":810,"y":211.5,"elo":1555,"date":"2016-06-18","opp":"Stephen Thompson","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jun 18, 2016 Stephen Thompson L -15
Jul 11, 2015 Robbie Lawler L -25
Oct 4, 2014 Tarec Saffiedine W +13
Jun 14, 2014 Tyron Woodley W +14
Feb 22, 2014 Demian Maia W +18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
44%
4 / 9
Finish rate
KO
3
33% of wins
SUB
1
11% of wins
DEC
5
56% of wins
KO: 3 (33%) 3 Sub: 1 (11%) 1 Dec: 5 (56%) 5
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
2 50%
R2
1 25%
R3
1 25%
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 667 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
75% Head
  • Head 75%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 6%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
76% Distance
  • Distance 76%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 15%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
50%
of losses by finish
2 of 4
2 KO/TKO 0 Sub 2 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1611
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
4
of 9 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Demian Maia
Elo 1653 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
6.6
+2.4 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 13 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1648
Notable wins
Demian Maia 1653 Jake Ellenberger 1641 BJ Penn 1637 Nate Diaz 1619

Top welterweight

See full rankings →
Islam Makhachev C
#1 · Elo 1802
Kamaru Usman
#2 · Elo 1691
Shavkat Rakhmonov
#3 · Elo 1679
Michael Morales
#4 · Elo 1671
Ian Machado Garry
#5 · Elo 1669
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Rory MacDonald on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.