HonestElo
← welterweight

Rory MacDonald

Inactive · Orthodox · 183 cm · reach 193 cm
Elo rating
1606 ±40
LCB 1554
Rank
—
—
UFC record
9-4-0
KO 3 · Sub 1 · Dec 5
Streak
-2
Δ90d -15 · Δ1y -15
Last fight
Jun 18, 2016
L by Decision

Elo history

13 fights · tap & drag
Jan 11, 2010 — W vs Mike Guymon Δ+33Jun 12, 2010 — L vs Carlos Condit Δ-35Apr 30, 2011 — W vs Nate Diaz Δ+38Aug 6, 2011 — W vs Mike Pyle Δ+35Apr 21, 2012 — W vs Che Mills Δ+30Dec 8, 2012 — W vs BJ Penn Δ+18Jul 27, 2013 — W vs Jake Ellenberger Δ+17Nov 16, 2013 — L vs Robbie Lawler Δ-19Feb 22, 2014 — W vs Demian Maia Δ+18Jun 14, 2014 — W vs Tyron Woodley Δ+14Oct 4, 2014 — W vs Tarec Saffiedine Δ+13Jul 11, 2015 — L vs Robbie Lawler Δ-25Jun 18, 2016 — L vs Stephen Thompson Δ-15 14581518157916401701 201120122013201420152016 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":170.2,"elo":1533,"date":"2010-01-11","opp":"Mike Guymon","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":79.1,"y":201.1,"elo":1498,"date":"2010-06-12","opp":"Carlos Condit","result":"L","delta":-35},{"i":2,"x":195.9,"y":167.5,"elo":1536,"date":"2011-04-30","opp":"Nate Diaz","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":3,"x":231.4,"y":136.7,"elo":1572,"date":"2011-08-06","opp":"Mike Pyle","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":4,"x":325.3,"y":110.8,"elo":1601,"date":"2012-04-21","opp":"Che Mills","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":5,"x":409,"y":95.4,"elo":1619,"date":"2012-12-08","opp":"BJ Penn","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":492.8,"y":80.6,"elo":1636,"date":"2013-07-27","opp":"Jake Ellenberger","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":7,"x":533.4,"y":97.3,"elo":1617,"date":"2013-11-16","opp":"Robbie Lawler","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":8,"x":568.9,"y":81.9,"elo":1634,"date":"2014-02-22","opp":"Demian Maia","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":609.5,"y":69.9,"elo":1648,"date":"2014-06-14","opp":"Tyron Woodley","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":10,"x":650.1,"y":58.9,"elo":1661,"date":"2014-10-04","opp":"Tarec Saffiedine","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":11,"x":751.6,"y":80.6,"elo":1636,"date":"2015-07-11","opp":"Robbie Lawler","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":12,"x":876,"y":94.1,"elo":1620,"date":"2016-06-18","opp":"Stephen Thompson","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jun 18, 2016 Stephen Thompson L -15
Jul 11, 2015 Robbie Lawler L -25
Oct 4, 2014 Tarec Saffiedine W +13
Jun 14, 2014 Tyron Woodley W +14
Feb 22, 2014 Demian Maia W +18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.51 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
42% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.63 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
62% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.66 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
48% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
89% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.39 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
44%
4 / 9
Finish rate
KO
3
33% of wins
SUB
1
11% of wins
DEC
5
56% of wins
KO: 3 (33%) 3 Sub: 1 (11%) 1 Dec: 5 (56%) 5
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
2 50%
R2
1 25%
R3
1 25%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1611
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.6
actual +2 vs expected