HonestElo
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Matt Serra

Inactive · Orthodox · 168 cm · reach 173 cm
Elo rating
1532 ±41
LCB 1479
Rank
—
—
UFC record
7-7-0
KO 2 · Sub 1 · Dec 4
Streak
-1
Δ90d +10 · Δ1y +10
Last fight
Sep 25, 2010
L by Decision

Elo history

14 fights · tap & drag
May 4, 2001 — L vs Shonie Carter Δ-28Sep 28, 2001 — W vs Yves Edwards Δ+31Mar 22, 2002 — W vs Kelly Dullanty Δ+33Sep 27, 2002 — L vs BJ Penn Δ-25Feb 28, 2003 — L vs Din Thomas Δ-32Jan 31, 2004 — W vs Jeff Curran Δ+17Jun 19, 2004 — W vs Ivan Menjivar Δ+16Jun 4, 2005 — L vs Karo Parisyan Δ-14Nov 11, 2006 — W vs Chris Lytle Δ+18Apr 7, 2007 — W vs Georges St-Pierre Δ+31Apr 19, 2008 — L vs Georges St-Pierre Δ-16May 23, 2009 — L vs Matt Hughes Δ-11Feb 6, 2010 — W vs Frank Trigg Δ+16Sep 25, 2010 — L vs Chris Lytle Δ-16 14321471151015501589 2003200520072009 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":181.9,"elo":1472,"date":"2001-05-04","opp":"Shonie Carter","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":1,"x":60.5,"y":139.8,"elo":1503,"date":"2001-09-28","opp":"Yves Edwards","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":2,"x":104,"y":95.4,"elo":1536,"date":"2002-03-22","opp":"Kelly Dullanty","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":3,"x":150.9,"y":128.7,"elo":1511,"date":"2002-09-27","opp":"BJ Penn","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":4,"x":189.1,"y":171.6,"elo":1480,"date":"2003-02-28","opp":"Din Thomas","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":5,"x":272.8,"y":148.7,"elo":1497,"date":"2004-01-31","opp":"Jeff Curran","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":307.6,"y":126.8,"elo":1513,"date":"2004-06-19","opp":"Ivan Menjivar","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":7,"x":394.5,"y":145.2,"elo":1499,"date":"2005-06-04","opp":"Karo Parisyan","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":8,"x":524.9,"y":120.5,"elo":1518,"date":"2006-11-11","opp":"Chris Lytle","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":561.4,"y":78.1,"elo":1549,"date":"2007-04-07","opp":"Georges St-Pierre","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":10,"x":655.2,"y":99.5,"elo":1533,"date":"2008-04-19","opp":"Georges St-Pierre","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":11,"x":754.3,"y":114.1,"elo":1522,"date":"2009-05-23","opp":"Matt Hughes","result":"L","delta":-11},{"i":12,"x":818.6,"y":92.7,"elo":1538,"date":"2010-02-06","opp":"Frank Trigg","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":13,"x":876,"y":114.6,"elo":1522,"date":"2010-09-25","opp":"Chris Lytle","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Sep 25, 2010 Chris Lytle L -16
Feb 6, 2010 Frank Trigg W +16
May 23, 2009 Matt Hughes L -11
Apr 19, 2008 Georges St-Pierre L -16
Apr 7, 2007 Georges St-Pierre W +31

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
1.90 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
40% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.54 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
47% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.97 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
21% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
39% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.86 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
5 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
43%
3 / 7
Finish rate
KO
2
29% of wins
SUB
1
14% of wins
DEC
4
57% of wins
KO: 2 (29%) 2 Sub: 1 (14%) 1 Dec: 4 (57%) 4
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
3 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1593
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.4
actual +1 vs expected