HonestElo
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Lone'Er Kavanagh

Active #19 flyweight
Elo rating
1554 ±38
LCB 1505
Rank
#19
top 35% of division
UFC record
3-1-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
+1
Δ90d +37 · Δ1y +1
Last fight
Feb 28, 2026
W by Decision

Elo history

4 fights · tap & drag
Nov 23, 2024 — W vs Jose Ochoa Δ+29Mar 22, 2025 — W vs Felipe Dos Santos Δ+25Aug 23, 2025 — L vs Charles Johnson Δ-36Feb 28, 2026 — W vs Brandon Moreno Δ+37 14771506153615651594 20252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":142.4,"elo":1529,"date":"2024-11-23","opp":"Jose Ochoa","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":243.5,"y":97.7,"elo":1554,"date":"2025-03-22","opp":"Felipe Dos Santos","result":"W","delta":25},{"i":2,"x":527.5,"y":163.6,"elo":1517,"date":"2025-08-23","opp":"Charles Johnson","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":3,"x":876,"y":96.4,"elo":1554,"date":"2026-02-28","opp":"Brandon Moreno","result":"W","delta":37}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 28, 2026 Brandon Moreno W +37
Aug 23, 2025 Charles Johnson L -36
Mar 22, 2025 Felipe Dos Santos W +25
Nov 23, 2024 Jose Ochoa W +29

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.08 avg 3.37
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
48% avg 47%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.45 avg 2.85
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
56% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.15 avg 1.57
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
45% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
94% avg 63%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.23 avg 0.76
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 3
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (100%) 3

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1530
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.0
actual +1 vs expected