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Louis Smolka

Inactive · Orthodox · 175 cm · reach 173 cm
Elo rating
1512 ±36
LCB 1466
Rank
—
—
UFC record
8-9-0
KO 4 · Sub 2 · Dec 2
Streak
-2
Δ90d +8 · Δ1y +8
Last fight
May 14, 2022
L by KO

Elo history

17 fights · tap & drag
Jan 15, 2014 — W vs Alptekin Ozkilic Δ+31May 10, 2014 — L vs Chris Cariaso Δ-26Nov 7, 2014 — W vs Richie Vaculik Δ+33Jul 11, 2015 — W vs Neil Seery Δ+29Oct 24, 2015 — W vs Paddy Holohan Δ+32Jul 13, 2016 — W vs Ben Nguyen Δ+17Oct 1, 2016 — L vs Brandon Moreno Δ-24Dec 30, 2016 — L vs Ray Borg Δ-18Apr 15, 2017 — L vs Tim Elliott Δ-21Dec 30, 2017 — L vs Matheus Nicolau Δ-15Nov 24, 2018 — W vs Sumudaerji Δ+17Mar 9, 2019 — L vs Matt Schnell Δ-21Sep 14, 2019 — W vs Ryan MacDonald Δ+15May 30, 2020 — L vs Casey Kenney Δ-19Dec 5, 2020 — W vs Jose Quinonez Δ+20Dec 4, 2021 — L vs Vince Morales Δ-22May 14, 2022 — L vs Davey Grant Δ-21 14641512155916071655 2016201820202022 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":161.1,"elo":1531,"date":"2014-01-15","opp":"Alptekin Ozkilic","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":1,"x":56.2,"y":190.3,"elo":1505,"date":"2014-05-10","opp":"Chris Cariaso","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":2,"x":106.9,"y":154.1,"elo":1538,"date":"2014-11-07","opp":"Richie Vaculik","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":3,"x":175.9,"y":122.3,"elo":1566,"date":"2015-07-11","opp":"Neil Seery","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":205.3,"y":86.9,"elo":1598,"date":"2015-10-24","opp":"Paddy Holohan","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":5,"x":279,"y":68.6,"elo":1615,"date":"2016-07-13","opp":"Ben Nguyen","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":301.4,"y":95.6,"elo":1590,"date":"2016-10-01","opp":"Brandon Moreno","result":"L","delta":-24},{"i":7,"x":326.6,"y":116.2,"elo":1572,"date":"2016-12-30","opp":"Ray Borg","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":8,"x":356.3,"y":139.9,"elo":1551,"date":"2017-04-15","opp":"Tim Elliott","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":9,"x":428.8,"y":157,"elo":1535,"date":"2017-12-30","opp":"Matheus Nicolau","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":10,"x":521,"y":138.6,"elo":1552,"date":"2018-11-24","opp":"Sumudaerji","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":11,"x":550.4,"y":161.7,"elo":1531,"date":"2019-03-09","opp":"Matt Schnell","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":12,"x":603.4,"y":144.8,"elo":1546,"date":"2019-09-14","opp":"Ryan MacDonald","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":13,"x":676,"y":166,"elo":1527,"date":"2020-05-30","opp":"Casey Kenney","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":14,"x":728.9,"y":144,"elo":1547,"date":"2020-12-05","opp":"Jose Quinonez","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":15,"x":830.9,"y":168.4,"elo":1525,"date":"2021-12-04","opp":"Vince Morales","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":16,"x":876,"y":191.4,"elo":1504,"date":"2022-05-14","opp":"Davey Grant","result":"L","delta":-21}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 14, 2022 Davey Grant L -21
Dec 4, 2021 Vince Morales L -22
Dec 5, 2020 Jose Quinonez W +20
May 30, 2020 Casey Kenney L -19
Sep 14, 2019 Ryan MacDonald W +15

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.04 avg 3.92
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
47% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.55 avg 3.04
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
54% avg 58%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.46 avg 1.64
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
35% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
32% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.54 avg 0.37
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
75%
6 / 8
Finish rate
KO
4
50% of wins
SUB
2
25% of wins
DEC
2
25% of wins
KO: 4 (50%) 4 Sub: 2 (25%) 2 Dec: 2 (25%) 2
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
1 17%
R2
4 67%
R3
1 17%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1503
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
9.2
actual -1 vs expected