HonestElo
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✓ Steve Erceg won · by Decision · R3
flyweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
May 2, 2026 · Perth, Western Australia, Australia
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Corner A
Tim Elliott
#27 10-12-0
Elo 1463
VS
Corner B
Steve Erceg
#21 5-4-0
Elo 1486
Final result · recorded May 2, 2026
Steve Erceg
defeated Tim Elliott by Decision in round 3

Honest Elo Meter pre-fight: Tim Elliott 49.0% · Steve Erceg 51.0%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 10
Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates Main event · welterweight Beneil Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld lightweight Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Pericic heavyweight Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland heavyweight Cam Rowston vs Robert Bryczek middleweight Junior Tafa vs Kevin Christian light heavyweight Jacob Malkoun vs Gerald Meerschaert middleweight Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales bantamweight Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo welterweight Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele lightweight

Notable

Elliott

6 career post-fight bonuses — a reliable action fighter.

Form

Both enter off a loss (May 2026 / Jul 2026).

Tale of the tape

10-12-0 UFC record 5-4-0
KO 0 · Sub 3 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
-1 Streak -1
39 Age 31
5'7" 170 cm Height 5'8" 173 cm
66" 168 cm Reach 68" 173 cm
Southpaw Stance Orthodox
1509 Global Elo 1530
1463 Elo rating 1486
Tim Elliott — Notable ▼
At a glance
Steve Erceg — Notable ▼

Tim Elliott — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 948 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
58% Head
  • Head 58%
  • Body 20%
  • Leg 23%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
66% Distance
  • Distance 66%
  • Clinch 16%
  • Ground 18%

Steve Erceg — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 565 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
74% Head
  • Head 74%
  • Body 18%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
89% Distance
  • Distance 89%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 2%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.51
4.56
div avg 3.86
43%
47%
div avg 46%
3.00
4.14
div avg 3.26
56%
56%
div avg 57%
3.61
1.09
div avg 1.56
45%
27%
div avg 38%
59%
67%
div avg 63%
1.06
0.36
div avg 0.81
4
2
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Tim Elliott
30% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 3
can finish?
Steve Erceg
finished 50%
2 of 4 losses
Steve Erceg
20% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Tim Elliott
finished 42%
5 of 12 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1534 (Tim Elliott) vs 1554 (Steve Erceg).

Tim Elliott red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1534
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 10 UFC wins
Toughest win
Louis Smolka
Elo 1572 at fight time
Expected wins
9.3
+0.7 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 22 fights
1541
1532
Steve Erceg blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1554
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win
Matt Schnell
Elo 1544 at fight time
Expected wins
4.3
+0.7 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 9 fights
1523
1563
Corner A recent form
Tim Elliott
Corner B recent form
Steve Erceg
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Tim Elliott & Steve Erceg on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.