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✓ Colby Thicknesse won · by Decision · R3
bantamweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
May 2, 2026 · Perth, Western Australia, Australia
View full event card
Corner A
Colby Thicknesse
#49 2-1-0
Elo 1472
VS
Corner B
Vince Morales
#76 3-9-0
Elo 1384
Final result · recorded May 2, 2026
Colby Thicknesse
defeated Vince Morales by Decision in round 3

Honest Elo Meter pre-fight: Colby Thicknesse 60.2% · Vince Morales 39.8%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 10
Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates Main event · welterweight Beneil Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld lightweight Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg flyweight Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Pericic heavyweight Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland heavyweight Cam Rowston vs Robert Bryczek middleweight Junior Tafa vs Kevin Christian light heavyweight Jacob Malkoun vs Gerald Meerschaert middleweight Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo welterweight Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele lightweight

Tale of the tape

2-1-0 UFC record 3-9-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 0
+2 Streak -6
26 Age 35
5'7" 170 cm Height 5'7" 170 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 70" 178 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1523 Global Elo 1425
1472 Elo rating 1384
Colby Thicknesse — Notable ▼
At a glance
Vince Morales — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 6-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • 33% of wins finished in round 1
  • UFC veteran since 2018

Colby Thicknesse — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 146 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
55% Head
  • Head 55%
  • Body 28%
  • Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
64% Distance
  • Distance 64%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 29%

Vince Morales — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 542 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
67% Head
  • Head 67%
  • Body 25%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
90% Distance
  • Distance 90%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 3%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.24
3.36
div avg 4.29
41%
37%
div avg 50%
2.93
3.87
div avg 3.30
54%
55%
div avg 58%
0.67
0.74
div avg 1.75
7%
47%
div avg 37%
33%
64%
div avg 70%
1.67
0.46
div avg 0.40
4
1
div avg 3

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Colby Thicknesse
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Vince Morales
finished 11%
1 of 9 losses
Vince Morales
33% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 0
can finish?
Colby Thicknesse
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Vince Morales has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1537 vs 1468, 0 quality wins to 0.

Colby Thicknesse red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1468
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Josias Musasa
Elo 1465 at fight time
Expected wins
1.6
+0.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1500
1438
Vince Morales blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1537
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Louis Smolka
Elo 1547 at fight time
Expected wins
5.1
−2.1 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 12 fights
1564
1500
Corner A recent form
Colby Thicknesse
Corner B recent form
Vince Morales
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Colby Thicknesse & Vince Morales on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.