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Tom Aspinall C

Active #4 heavyweight · age 33 · Orthodox · 6'5" 196 cm · 256 lb 116 kg · reach 78" 198 cm
At a glance
Elo rating
1654
Global Elo 1686 ±25
Rank
#4
top 7% of division
UFC record
8-1-0
KO 6 · Sub 2 · Dec 0
Streak
+3
Δ90d -20 · Δ1y -20
Last fight
Jul 27, 2024
Win by KO · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
18m
Avg fight time
2:02
Title fights
2-0
Bonuses
5
Fights per year
2.2
Since last fight
1y 11mo

Honest Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Jul 25, 2020 — W vs Jake Collier Δ+32Oct 10, 2020 — W vs Alan Baudot Δ+30Feb 20, 2021 — W vs Andrei Arlovski Δ+35Sep 4, 2021 — W vs Serghei Spivac Δ+29Mar 19, 2022 — W vs Alexander Volkov Δ+34Jul 23, 2022 — L vs Curtis Blaydes Δ-17Jul 22, 2023 — W vs Marcin Tybura Δ+17Nov 11, 2023 — W vs Sergei Pavlovich Δ+23Jul 27, 2024 — W vs Curtis Blaydes Δ+24 145015001550160016501700 2021202220232024 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":372.4,"elo":1479,"date":"2020-07-25","opp":"Jake Collier","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":1,"x":127.9,"y":334,"elo":1509,"date":"2020-10-10","opp":"Alan Baudot","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":193.3,"y":289,"elo":1545,"date":"2021-02-20","opp":"Andrei Arlovski","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":3,"x":289.8,"y":251.5,"elo":1574,"date":"2021-09-04","opp":"Serghei Spivac","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":386.3,"y":207.9,"elo":1608,"date":"2022-03-19","opp":"Alexander Volkov","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":5,"x":448.3,"y":230.2,"elo":1591,"date":"2022-07-23","opp":"Curtis Blaydes","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":6,"x":627.4,"y":208.5,"elo":1607,"date":"2023-07-22","opp":"Marcin Tybura","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":7,"x":682.5,"y":179.3,"elo":1630,"date":"2023-11-11","opp":"Sergei Pavlovich","result":"W","delta":23},{"i":8,"x":810,"y":149,"elo":1654,"date":"2024-07-27","opp":"Curtis Blaydes","result":"W","delta":24}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 27, 2024 Curtis Blaydes W +24
Nov 11, 2023 Sergei Pavlovich W +23
Jul 22, 2023 Marcin Tybura W +17
Jul 23, 2022 Curtis Blaydes L -17
Mar 19, 2022 Alexander Volkov W +34

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
8 / 8
Finish rate
KO
6
75% of wins
SUB
2
25% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 6 (75%) 6 Sub: 2 (25%) 2 Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
8 total
R1
7 88%
R2
1 13%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 148 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
71% Head
  • Head 71%
  • Body 12%
  • Leg 17%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
55% Distance
  • Distance 55%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 34%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
100%
of losses by finish
1 of 1
1 KO/TKO 0 Sub 0 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1656
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
4
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Curtis Blaydes
Elo 1693 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
4.6
+3.4 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 9 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1487
1693
Notable wins
Curtis Blaydes 1693 Sergei Pavlovich 1658 Alexander Volkov 1636 Marcin Tybura 1614

Top heavyweight

See full rankings →
Ciryl Gane IC
#1 · Elo 1691
Alexander Volkov
#2 · Elo 1656
Alex Pereira
#3 · Elo 1655
Sergei Pavlovich
#5 · Elo 1619
Josh Hokit
#6 · Elo 1613
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Tom Aspinall on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.