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Marcin Tybura

Active #19 heavyweight · Orthodox · 191 cm · reach 198 cm
Elo rating
1579 ±40
LCB 1527
Rank
#19
top 35% of division
UFC record
14-10-0
KO 4 · Sub 1 · Dec 8
Streak
-2
Δ90d -20 · Δ1y -45
Last fight
Mar 28, 2026
L by Decision

Elo history

24 fights · tap & drag
Apr 10, 2016 — L vs Timothy Johnson Δ-28Aug 6, 2016 — W vs Viktor Pesta Δ+33Mar 4, 2017 — W vs Luis Henrique Δ+36Jun 17, 2017 — W vs Andrei Arlovski Δ+34Nov 18, 2017 — L vs Fabricio Werdum Δ-23Feb 18, 2018 — L vs Derrick Lewis Δ-16Jul 22, 2018 — W vs Stefan Struve Δ+17Apr 20, 2019 — L vs Shamil Abdurakhimov Δ-19Sep 14, 2019 — L vs Augusto Sakai Δ-17Feb 29, 2020 — W vs Serghei Spivac Δ+15Jul 11, 2020 — W vs Maxim Grishin Δ+15Oct 10, 2020 — W vs Ben Rothwell Δ+17Dec 19, 2020 — W vs Greg Hardy Δ+20Jun 5, 2021 — W vs Walt Harris Δ+14Oct 30, 2021 — L vs Alexander Volkov Δ-15Aug 20, 2022 — W vs Alexandr Romanov Δ+18Feb 4, 2023 — W vs Blagoy Ivanov Δ+13Jul 22, 2023 — L vs Tom Aspinall Δ-17Mar 16, 2024 — W vs Tai Tuivasa Δ+17Aug 10, 2024 — L vs Serghei Spivac Δ-20Nov 16, 2024 — W vs Jhonata Diniz Δ+15Mar 22, 2025 — W vs Mick Parkin Δ+16Sep 6, 2025 — L vs Ante Delija Δ-25Mar 28, 2026 — L vs Tyrell Fortune Δ-20 14321490154816061665 20182020202220242026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":199.6,"elo":1472,"date":"2016-04-10","opp":"Timothy Johnson","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":1,"x":51.6,"y":169.4,"elo":1505,"date":"2016-08-06","opp":"Viktor Pesta","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":2,"x":100.8,"y":136.6,"elo":1541,"date":"2017-03-04","opp":"Luis Henrique","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":3,"x":125.4,"y":105.9,"elo":1575,"date":"2017-06-17","opp":"Andrei Arlovski","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":4,"x":161.4,"y":126.7,"elo":1552,"date":"2017-11-18","opp":"Fabricio Werdum","result":"L","delta":-23},{"i":5,"x":183,"y":140.9,"elo":1536,"date":"2018-02-18","opp":"Derrick Lewis","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":6,"x":219,"y":125.2,"elo":1554,"date":"2018-07-22","opp":"Stefan Struve","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":7,"x":282.7,"y":142.1,"elo":1535,"date":"2019-04-20","opp":"Shamil Abdurakhimov","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":8,"x":317.1,"y":157.6,"elo":1518,"date":"2019-09-14","opp":"Augusto Sakai","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":9,"x":356.5,"y":143.6,"elo":1533,"date":"2020-02-29","opp":"Serghei Spivac","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":10,"x":387.6,"y":130.4,"elo":1548,"date":"2020-07-11","opp":"Maxim Grishin","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":11,"x":408.9,"y":114.9,"elo":1565,"date":"2020-10-10","opp":"Ben Rothwell","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":12,"x":425.3,"y":96.9,"elo":1585,"date":"2020-12-19","opp":"Greg Hardy","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":13,"x":464.6,"y":84.4,"elo":1598,"date":"2021-06-05","opp":"Walt Harris","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":14,"x":499.1,"y":97.9,"elo":1583,"date":"2021-10-30","opp":"Alexander Volkov","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":15,"x":567.9,"y":81.2,"elo":1602,"date":"2022-08-20","opp":"Alexandr Romanov","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":16,"x":607.2,"y":69.9,"elo":1614,"date":"2023-02-04","opp":"Blagoy Ivanov","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":17,"x":646.6,"y":85.3,"elo":1597,"date":"2023-07-22","opp":"Tom Aspinall","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":18,"x":702.3,"y":70.2,"elo":1614,"date":"2024-03-16","opp":"Tai Tuivasa","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":19,"x":736.7,"y":88.3,"elo":1594,"date":"2024-08-10","opp":"Serghei Spivac","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":20,"x":759.6,"y":75.1,"elo":1609,"date":"2024-11-16","opp":"Jhonata Diniz","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":21,"x":789.1,"y":60.4,"elo":1625,"date":"2025-03-22","opp":"Mick Parkin","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":22,"x":828.5,"y":83,"elo":1600,"date":"2025-09-06","opp":"Ante Delija","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":23,"x":876,"y":101.6,"elo":1579,"date":"2026-03-28","opp":"Tyrell Fortune","result":"L","delta":-20}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 28, 2026 Tyrell Fortune L -20
Sep 6, 2025 Ante Delija L -25
Mar 22, 2025 Mick Parkin W +16
Nov 16, 2024 Jhonata Diniz W +15
Aug 10, 2024 Serghei Spivac L -20

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.25 avg 3.07
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
48% avg 50%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.97 avg 2.77
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
55% avg 52%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.19 avg 1.28
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
33% avg 40%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
71% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.10 avg 0.32
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
36%
5 / 14
Finish rate
KO
4
29% of wins
SUB
1
7% of wins
DEC
8
57% of wins
KO: 4 (31%) 4 Sub: 1 (8%) Dec: 8 (62%) 8
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
2 33%
R2
3 50%
R3
1 17%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1551
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
12.1
actual +2 vs expected