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Serghei Spivac "Polar Bear"

Active #20 heavyweight · age 31 · Orthodox · 6'3" 191 cm · 260 lb 118 kg · reach 78" 198 cm
At a glance
  • 67% of wins by KO or submission
  • 33% of wins finished in round 1
Elo rating
1524
Global Elo 1570 ±35
Rank
#20
top 42% of division
UFC record
9-7-0
KO 3 · Sub 3 · Dec 3
Streak
-1
Δ90d -16 · Δ1y -2
Last fight
Aug 22, 2026
Loss by Decision

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
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The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Honest Elo history

16 fights · tap & drag
May 4, 2019 — L vs Walt Harris Δ-36Oct 5, 2019 — W vs Tai Tuivasa Δ+40Feb 29, 2020 — L vs Marcin Tybura Δ-28Jul 18, 2020 — W vs Carlos Felipe Δ+31Feb 20, 2021 — W vs Jared Vanderaa Δ+33Jun 19, 2021 — W vs Aleksei Oleinik Δ+17Sep 4, 2021 — L vs Tom Aspinall Δ-16Mar 5, 2022 — W vs Greg Hardy Δ+17Aug 6, 2022 — W vs Augusto Sakai Δ+18Feb 4, 2023 — W vs Derrick Lewis Δ+21Sep 2, 2023 — L vs Ciryl Gane Δ-14Aug 10, 2024 — W vs Marcin Tybura Δ+20Jan 18, 2025 — L vs Jailton Almeida Δ-15Jun 7, 2025 — L vs Waldo Cortes Acosta Δ-15Feb 21, 2026 — W vs Ante Delija Δ+14Aug 22, 2026 — L vs Vitor Petrino Δ-16 135014001450150015501600 202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":323,"elo":1418,"date":"2019-05-04","opp":"Walt Harris","result":"L","delta":-36},{"i":1,"x":131.6,"y":272,"elo":1458,"date":"2019-10-05","opp":"Tai Tuivasa","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":2,"x":171.3,"y":307.5,"elo":1430,"date":"2020-02-29","opp":"Marcin Tybura","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":3,"x":209.1,"y":268,"elo":1461,"date":"2020-07-18","opp":"Carlos Felipe","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":4,"x":267.6,"y":226.4,"elo":1493,"date":"2021-02-20","opp":"Jared Vanderaa","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":5,"x":299.8,"y":204.2,"elo":1511,"date":"2021-06-19","opp":"Aleksei Oleinik","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":320.6,"y":225,"elo":1495,"date":"2021-09-04","opp":"Tom Aspinall","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":7,"x":369.7,"y":202.8,"elo":1512,"date":"2022-03-05","opp":"Greg Hardy","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":8,"x":411.3,"y":180,"elo":1530,"date":"2022-08-06","opp":"Augusto Sakai","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":460.4,"y":152.7,"elo":1551,"date":"2023-02-04","opp":"Derrick Lewis","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":10,"x":517.1,"y":170.9,"elo":1537,"date":"2023-09-02","opp":"Ciryl Gane","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":11,"x":609.7,"y":145.4,"elo":1557,"date":"2024-08-10","opp":"Marcin Tybura","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":12,"x":653.1,"y":164.6,"elo":1542,"date":"2025-01-18","opp":"Jailton Almeida","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":13,"x":690.9,"y":184.1,"elo":1527,"date":"2025-06-07","opp":"Waldo Cortes Acosta","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":14,"x":760.9,"y":166.9,"elo":1540,"date":"2026-02-21","opp":"Ante Delija","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":15,"x":810,"y":186.9,"elo":1524,"date":"2026-08-22","opp":"Vitor Petrino","result":"L","delta":-16}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 22, 2026 Vitor Petrino L -16
Feb 21, 2026 Ante Delija W +14
Jun 7, 2025 Waldo Cortes Acosta L -15
Jan 18, 2025 Jailton Almeida L -15
Aug 10, 2024 Marcin Tybura W +20
2 post-fight bonuses
  • Performance of the Night ×2
$100,000 in bonus money

UFC awards a discretionary bonus for the night's best fight and finishes. Serghei Spivac has earned 2. The payout was $50,000 from 2014 to 2025 and $100,000 from 2026; select cards have paid more.

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
6 / 9
Finish rate
KO
3
33% of wins
SUB
3
33% of wins
DEC
3
33% of wins
KO: 3 (33%) 3 Sub: 3 (33%) 3 Dec: 3 (33%) 3
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
3 50%
R2
3 50%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 471 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
94% Head
  • Head 94%
  • Body 4%
  • Leg 2%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
63% Distance
  • Distance 63%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 34%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
57%
of losses by finish
4 of 7 · usually R1
4 KO/TKO 0 Sub 3 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1599
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
2
of 9 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Derrick Lewis
Elo 1630 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
7.6
+1.4 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 16 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1468
1595
Notable wins
Derrick Lewis 1630 Marcin Tybura 1612
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 21m
Avg fight time
8:47
Fights per year
2.2
Since last fight
2mo
Bonuses
2
Ground control
42m
vs Compare Serghei Spivac with any fighter any division · any era · honest simulation →

Top heavyweight

See full rankings →
Ciryl Gane IC
#1 · Elo 1690
Tom Aspinall C
#2 · Elo 1674
Alexander Volkov
#3 · Elo 1655
Alex Pereira
#4 · Elo 1655
Curtis Blaydes
#5 · Elo 1623
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Serghei Spivac on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.