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Serghei Spivac "Polar Bear"

Active #17 heavyweight · age 31 · Orthodox · 6'3" 191 cm · 260 lb 118 kg · reach 78" 198 cm
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
  • 67% of wins by KO or submission
  • 33% of wins finished in round 1
Elo rating
1546
Global Elo 1588 ±32
Rank
#17
top 39% of division
UFC record
9-6-0
KO 3 · Sub 3 · Dec 3
Streak
+1
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y +13
Last fight
Feb 21, 2026
Win by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
2h 6m
Avg fight time
8:22
Bonuses
6
Fights per year
2.2
Ground control
41m
Since last fight
4mo

Honest Elo history

15 fights · tap & drag
May 4, 2019 — L vs Walt Harris Δ-35Oct 5, 2019 — W vs Tai Tuivasa Δ+40Feb 29, 2020 — L vs Marcin Tybura Δ-28Jul 18, 2020 — W vs Carlos Felipe Δ+31Feb 20, 2021 — W vs Jared Vanderaa Δ+32Jun 19, 2021 — W vs Aleksei Oleinik Δ+17Sep 4, 2021 — L vs Tom Aspinall Δ-16Mar 5, 2022 — W vs Greg Hardy Δ+19Aug 6, 2022 — W vs Augusto Sakai Δ+18Feb 4, 2023 — W vs Derrick Lewis Δ+21Sep 2, 2023 — L vs Ciryl Gane Δ-14Aug 10, 2024 — W vs Marcin Tybura Δ+20Jan 18, 2025 — L vs Jailton Almeida Δ-15Jun 7, 2025 — L vs Waldo Cortes Acosta Δ-15Feb 21, 2026 — W vs Ante Delija Δ+13 14001450150015501600 202120232025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":371.9,"elo":1424,"date":"2019-05-04","opp":"Walt Harris","result":"L","delta":-35},{"i":1,"x":134.6,"y":308.6,"elo":1463,"date":"2019-10-05","opp":"Tai Tuivasa","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":2,"x":177.2,"y":352.9,"elo":1436,"date":"2020-02-29","opp":"Marcin Tybura","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":3,"x":217.8,"y":303.8,"elo":1466,"date":"2020-07-18","opp":"Carlos Felipe","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":4,"x":280.6,"y":251.9,"elo":1499,"date":"2021-02-20","opp":"Jared Vanderaa","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":5,"x":315.1,"y":224.1,"elo":1516,"date":"2021-06-19","opp":"Aleksei Oleinik","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":6,"x":337.4,"y":250.3,"elo":1500,"date":"2021-09-04","opp":"Tom Aspinall","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":7,"x":390.2,"y":219.9,"elo":1519,"date":"2022-03-05","opp":"Greg Hardy","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":8,"x":434.8,"y":191.6,"elo":1537,"date":"2022-08-06","opp":"Augusto Sakai","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":9,"x":487.5,"y":157.8,"elo":1558,"date":"2023-02-04","opp":"Derrick Lewis","result":"W","delta":21},{"i":10,"x":548.4,"y":180.7,"elo":1543,"date":"2023-09-02","opp":"Ciryl Gane","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":11,"x":647.7,"y":148.7,"elo":1563,"date":"2024-08-10","opp":"Marcin Tybura","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":12,"x":694.4,"y":173,"elo":1548,"date":"2025-01-18","opp":"Jailton Almeida","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":13,"x":735,"y":197.5,"elo":1533,"date":"2025-06-07","opp":"Waldo Cortes Acosta","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":14,"x":810,"y":176.1,"elo":1546,"date":"2026-02-21","opp":"Ante Delija","result":"W","delta":13}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 21, 2026 Ante Delija W +13
Jun 7, 2025 Waldo Cortes Acosta L -15
Jan 18, 2025 Jailton Almeida L -15
Aug 10, 2024 Marcin Tybura W +20
Sep 2, 2023 Ciryl Gane L -14

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
6 / 9
Finish rate
KO
3
33% of wins
SUB
3
33% of wins
DEC
3
33% of wins
KO: 3 (33%) 3 Sub: 3 (33%) 3 Dec: 3 (33%) 3
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
3 50%
R2
3 50%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 448 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
94% Head
  • Head 94%
  • Body 4%
  • Leg 2%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
61% Distance
  • Distance 61%
  • Clinch 4%
  • Ground 35%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
67%
of losses by finish
4 of 6 · usually R1
4 KO/TKO 0 Sub 2 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1616
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
2
of 9 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Derrick Lewis
Elo 1630 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
7.0
+2.0 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 15 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1481
1517
Notable wins
Derrick Lewis 1630 Marcin Tybura 1614

Top heavyweight

See full rankings →
Ciryl Gane IC
#1 · Elo 1691
Alexander Volkov
#2 · Elo 1656
Alex Pereira
#3 · Elo 1655
Tom Aspinall C
#4 · Elo 1654
Sergei Pavlovich
#5 · Elo 1619
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Serghei Spivac on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.