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Thomas Petersen "The Train"

Active #34 heavyweight · age 31 · Southpaw · 6'1" 185 cm · 250 lb 113 kg · reach 74" 188 cm
Upcoming bout Sat, Jul 25
vs Valter Walker · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr
Elo rating
1444
Global Elo 1496 ±40
Rank
#34
top 80% of division
UFC record
3-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
+1
Δ90d +18 · Δ1y -9
Last fight
Apr 4, 2026
Win by Decision · R3
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 14m
Avg fight time
12:16
Bonuses
1
Fights per year
2.8
Ground control
28m
Since last fight
3mo

Honest Elo history

6 fights · tap & drag
Feb 3, 2024 — L vs Jamal Pogues Δ-29Jul 20, 2024 — W vs Mohammed Usman Δ+35Feb 1, 2025 — L vs Shamil Gaziev Δ-30May 3, 2025 — W vs Don'Tale Mayes Δ+28Oct 11, 2025 — L vs Vitor Petrino Δ-27Apr 4, 2026 — W vs Guilherme Pat Δ+18 138014001420144014601480 20252026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":285.2,"elo":1419,"date":"2024-02-03","opp":"Jamal Pogues","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":1,"x":242.9,"y":172.6,"elo":1454,"date":"2024-07-20","opp":"Mohammed Usman","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":2,"x":421.3,"y":267.9,"elo":1424,"date":"2025-02-01","opp":"Shamil Gaziev","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":3,"x":504.2,"y":176.7,"elo":1453,"date":"2025-05-03","opp":"Don'Tale Mayes","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":4,"x":650.7,"y":264.4,"elo":1426,"date":"2025-10-11","opp":"Vitor Petrino","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":5,"x":810,"y":205.5,"elo":1444,"date":"2026-04-04","opp":"Guilherme Pat","result":"W","delta":18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Apr 4, 2026 Guilherme Pat W +18
Oct 11, 2025 Vitor Petrino L -27
May 3, 2025 Don'Tale Mayes W +28
Feb 1, 2025 Shamil Gaziev L -30
Jul 20, 2024 Mohammed Usman W +35

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 3
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (100%) 3

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 225 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
64% Head
  • Head 64%
  • Body 27%
  • Leg 8%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
75% Distance
  • Distance 75%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 18%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
67%
of losses by finish
2 of 3
2 KO/TKO 0 Sub 1 Dec Never submitted

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1531
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Mohammed Usman
Elo 1548 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
2.7
+0.3 wins above what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 6 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1497
1529

Top heavyweight

See full rankings →
Ciryl Gane IC
#1 · Elo 1691
Alexander Volkov
#2 · Elo 1656
Alex Pereira
#3 · Elo 1655
Tom Aspinall C
#4 · Elo 1654
Sergei Pavlovich
#5 · Elo 1619
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Thomas Petersen on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.