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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Sy

Reach advantage of ~5".

Tale of the tape

3-2-0 UFC record 8-5-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 Finishes KO 3 · Sub 1
-1 Streak +1
30 Age 32
6'4" 193 cm Height 6'3" 191 cm
83" 211 cm Reach 78" 198 cm
Orthodox Stance Switch
1527 Global Elo 1548
1474 Elo rating 1510
Oumar Sy — Notable
At a glance
Modestas Bukauskas — Notable
At a glance

Oumar Sy — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 146 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
51% Head
  • Head 51%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 29%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
83% Distance
  • Distance 83%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 9%

Modestas Bukauskas — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 411 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
72% Head
  • Head 72%
  • Body 17%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
86% Distance
  • Distance 86%
  • Clinch 9%
  • Ground 5%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.41
3.14
div avg 4.76
48%
43%
div avg 51%
1.87
3.86
div avg 4.12
67%
51%
div avg 52%
2.45
0.23
div avg 1.35
35%
67%
div avg 39%
67%
82%
div avg 71%
0.35
0.11
div avg 0.58
5
2
div avg 2

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Oumar Sy
67% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 1
can finish?
Modestas Bukauskas
finished 80%
4 of 5 losses
Modestas Bukauskas
50% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 1
can finish?
Oumar Sy
finished 50%
1 of 2 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1527 (Oumar Sy) vs 1517 (Modestas Bukauskas).

Oumar Sy red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1527
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Da Woon Jung
Elo 1559 at fight time
Expected wins
2.6
+0.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1500
1513
Modestas Bukauskas blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1517
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 8 UFC wins
Toughest win
Tyson Pedro
Elo 1542 at fight time
Expected wins
6.2
+1.8 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 13 fights
1500
1500

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • L
    W
    Submission · R1
    Decision - Split
    Mar 14, 2026
    May 10, 2025
Corner A recent form
Oumar Sy
Corner B recent form
Modestas Bukauskas
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Oumar Sy & Modestas Bukauskas on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.