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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

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By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Size

Cross-division matchup: the model gives Ruziboev +55 Elo for a ~15 lb representative gap. Toggle it off to compare pure skill.

Page

Has never been finished — the only loss went to the scorecards.

Ruziboev

Has never been finished — the only loss went to the scorecards.

Tale of the tape

4-1-0 UFC record 5-1-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 3 · Sub 1
+3 Streak +3
39 Age 32
6'3" 191 cm Height 6'5" 196 cm
79" 201 cm Reach 76" 193 cm
Switch Stance Orthodox
1620 Global Elo 1604
1582 Elo rating 1570
Michael Page — Notable
At a glance
Nursulton Ruziboev — Notable
At a glance
  • 3-fight UFC win streak
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • 80% of wins by KO or submission
  • 60% of wins finished in round 1

Michael Page — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 161 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
63% Head
  • Head 63%
  • Body 22%
  • Leg 15%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
93% Distance
  • Distance 93%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 2%

Nursulton Ruziboev — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 105 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
69% Head
  • Head 69%
  • Body 26%
  • Leg 6%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
71% Distance
  • Distance 71%
  • Clinch 8%
  • Ground 21%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

2.15
2.38
div avg 4.23
56%
46%
div avg 50%
1.57
2.68
div avg 3.15
62%
49%
div avg 56%
0.00
1.36
div avg 1.89
0%
80%
div avg 43%
68%
33%
div avg 71%
0.00
0.34
div avg 0.43
1
2
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Michael Page
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Nursulton Ruziboev
finished 0%
never finished
Nursulton Ruziboev
80% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 1
can finish?
Michael Page
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Michael Page has faced the tougher recent slate — last-5 avg 1624 vs 1511, 3 quality wins to 0.

Michael Page red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1624
Contender level
Quality wins (1600+)
3
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Jared Cannonier
Elo 1619 at fight time
Expected wins
1.9
+2.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1608
1598
Nursulton Ruziboev blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1511
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 5 UFC wins
Toughest win
Brunno Ferreira
Elo 1542 at fight time
Expected wins
3.3
+1.7 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1542
1484
Corner A recent form
Michael Page
Corner B recent form
Nursulton Ruziboev
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Michael Page & Nursulton Ruziboev on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.