HonestElo
← light heavyweight

Zac Pauga

Inactive
Elo rating
1449 ±33
LCB 1405
Rank
—
—
UFC record
1-3-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
-2
Δ90d +18 · Δ1y +18
Last fight
Feb 10, 2024
L by KO

Elo history

4 fights · tap & drag
Aug 6, 2022 — L vs Mohammed Usman Δ-33Feb 18, 2023 — W vs Jordan Wright Δ+27Jun 17, 2023 — L vs Modestas Bukauskas Δ-30Feb 10, 2024 — L vs Bogdan Guskov Δ-32 13911427146214981534 20232024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":123.2,"elo":1467,"date":"2022-08-06","opp":"Mohammed Usman","result":"L","delta":-33},{"i":1,"x":326,"y":83.6,"elo":1494,"date":"2023-02-18","opp":"Jordan Wright","result":"W","delta":27},{"i":2,"x":509.3,"y":128.1,"elo":1464,"date":"2023-06-17","opp":"Modestas Bukauskas","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":3,"x":876,"y":176.4,"elo":1431,"date":"2024-02-10","opp":"Bogdan Guskov","result":"L","delta":-32}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 10, 2024 Bogdan Guskov L -32
Jun 17, 2023 Modestas Bukauskas L -30
Feb 18, 2023 Jordan Wright W +27
Aug 6, 2022 Mohammed Usman L -33

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.89 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
63% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.38 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
59% avg 50%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.33 avg 0.72
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
8% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
100% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.36
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 1
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (100%) 1

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1473
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.0
actual -1 vs expected