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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Spann

Finishes 80% of wins (4 KO · 4 SUB; 60% of wins end in round 1).

Tale of the tape

3-0-0 UFC record 10-6-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 4 · Sub 4
+3 Streak +2
28 Age 34
6'5" 196 cm Height 6'5" 196 cm
79" 201 cm Reach 79" 201 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1590 Global Elo 1583
1564 Elo rating 1532
Mario Pinto — Notable
At a glance
Ryan Spann — Notable
At a glance

Mario Pinto — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 76 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
80% Head
  • Head 80%
  • Body 11%
  • Leg 9%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
45% Distance
  • Distance 45%
  • Clinch 18%
  • Ground 37%

Ryan Spann — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 304 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
75% Head
  • Head 75%
  • Body 18%
  • Leg 6%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
72% Distance
  • Distance 72%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 21%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

2.55
3.08
div avg 4.91
67%
39%
div avg 53%
1.81
3.85
div avg 3.51
58%
44%
div avg 51%
2.52
1.22
div avg 1.67
26%
35%
div avg 39%
100%
58%
div avg 74%
1.01
1.52
div avg 0.72
7
4
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Mario Pinto
67% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Ryan Spann
finished 83%
5 of 6 losses
Ryan Spann
80% finish rate
KO 4 · Sub 4
can finish?
Mario Pinto
finished
no losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1511 (Mario Pinto) vs 1511 (Ryan Spann).

Mario Pinto red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1511
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Jhonata Diniz
Elo 1562 at fight time
Expected wins
1.6
+1.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1471
1500
Ryan Spann blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1511
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
1
of 10 UFC wins
Toughest win
Dominick Reyes
Elo 1605 at fight time
Expected wins
8.6
+1.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 16 fights
1471
1483
Corner A recent form
Mario Pinto
Corner B recent form
Ryan Spann
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Mario Pinto & Ryan Spann on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.