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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Notable

Size

Cross-division matchup: the model gives Charriere +46 Elo for a ~10 lb representative gap. Toggle it off to compare pure skill.

Lima

Has never been finished — the only loss went to the scorecards.

Form

Both enter off a loss (Dec 2025 / Jun 2025).

Tale of the tape

3-3-0 UFC record 2-1-0
KO 3 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 1
-1 Streak -1
30 Age 28
5'8" 173 cm Height 5'6" 168 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 68" 173 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1534 Global Elo 1543
1486 Elo rating 1485
Morgan Charriere — Notable
At a glance
  • Earned a bonus in 3 of last 5 fights
  • 100% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 33% of wins finished in round 1
Felipe Lima — Notable
At a glance
  • Has never been finished — durability signal
  • 50% of wins by submission
  • 86% takedown defense in last 3 fights

Morgan Charriere — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 205 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
60% Head
  • Head 60%
  • Body 24%
  • Leg 16%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
89% Distance
  • Distance 89%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 5%

Felipe Lima — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 118 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
59% Head
  • Head 59%
  • Body 23%
  • Leg 18%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
88% Distance
  • Distance 88%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 2%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.02
2.86
div avg 4.36
50%
45%
div avg 49%
4.51
2.91
div avg 3.45
54%
65%
div avg 57%
2.06
2.18
div avg 1.47
47%
27%
div avg 41%
83%
86%
div avg 65%
0.29
0.73
div avg 0.45
3
3
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Morgan Charriere
100% finish rate
KO 3 · Sub 0
can finish?
Felipe Lima
finished 0%
never finished
Felipe Lima
50% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 1
can finish?
Morgan Charriere
finished 33%
1 of 3 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1558 (Morgan Charriere) vs 1572 (Felipe Lima).

Morgan Charriere red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1558
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Nate Landwehr
Elo 1536 at fight time
Expected wins
2.8
+0.2 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 6 fights
1500
1581
Felipe Lima blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1572
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 2 UFC wins
Toughest win
Muhammad Naimov
Elo 1594 at fight time
Expected wins
1.4
+0.6 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1594
1561
Corner A recent form
Morgan Charriere
Corner B recent form
Felipe Lima
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Morgan Charriere & Felipe Lima on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.