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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

7-4-0 UFC record 3-0-0
KO 4 · Sub 0 Finishes KO 2 · Sub 0
+4 Streak +3
33 Age 25
5'11" 180 cm Height 5'11" 180 cm
72" 183 cm Reach 71" 180 cm
Southpaw Stance Orthodox
1559 Global Elo 1597
1510 Elo rating 1571
Punahele Soriano — Notable
At a glance
  • 4-fight UFC win streak
  • 57% of wins by KO/TKO
  • 43% of wins finished in round 1
Daniil Donchenko — Notable
At a glance

Punahele Soriano — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 490 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
79% Head
  • Head 79%
  • Body 19%
  • Leg 2%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
47% Ground
  • Distance 45%
  • Clinch 9%
  • Ground 47%

Daniil Donchenko — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 210 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
43% Head
  • Head 43%
  • Body 26%
  • Leg 31%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
79% Distance
  • Distance 79%
  • Clinch 11%
  • Ground 10%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

4.60
8.07
div avg 4.23
56%
62%
div avg 50%
3.44
2.80
div avg 3.15
47%
70%
div avg 56%
1.83
0.58
div avg 1.89
48%
33%
div avg 43%
49%
75%
div avg 71%
0.14
0.00
div avg 0.43
5
2
div avg 4

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Punahele Soriano
57% finish rate
KO 4 · Sub 0
can finish?
Daniil Donchenko
finished
no losses
Daniil Donchenko
67% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Punahele Soriano
finished 50%
2 of 4 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1501 (Punahele Soriano) vs 1514 (Daniil Donchenko).

Punahele Soriano red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1501
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 7 UFC wins
Toughest win
Uros Medic
Elo 1550 at fight time
Expected wins
5.8
+1.2 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 11 fights
1489
1536
Daniil Donchenko blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1514
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Alex Morono
Elo 1543 at fight time
Expected wins
1.6
+1.4 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 3 fights
1500
1500
Corner A recent form
Punahele Soriano
Corner B recent form
Daniil Donchenko
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Punahele Soriano & Daniil Donchenko on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.