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Carlos Hernandez

Active #34 flyweight · age 32 · Orthodox · 5'8" 173 cm · 125 lb 57 kg · reach 67" 170 cm
Elo rating
1424
Global Elo 1471 ±36
Rank
#34
top 77% of division
UFC record
3-4-0
KO 0 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
-1
Δ90d +1 · Δ1y +1
Last fight
May 17, 2025
Loss by Submission · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 12m
Avg fight time
10:14
Bonuses
1
Fights per year
2.2
Since last fight
1y 1mo

Honest Elo history

7 fights · tap & drag
Feb 26, 2022 — W vs Victor Altamirano Δ+29Jan 14, 2023 — L vs Allan Nascimento Δ-35Jun 17, 2023 — W vs Denys Bondar Δ+26Dec 9, 2023 — L vs Tatsuro Taira Δ-25Jun 29, 2024 — L vs Rei Tsuruya Δ-28Nov 23, 2024 — W vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel Δ+18May 17, 2025 — L vs Hyunsung Park Δ-14 1400142014401460148015001520 202320242025 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":187.9,"elo":1483,"date":"2022-02-26","opp":"Victor Altamirano","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":287.1,"y":282.3,"elo":1448,"date":"2023-01-14","opp":"Allan Nascimento","result":"L","delta":-35},{"i":2,"x":381.4,"y":211.9,"elo":1474,"date":"2023-06-17","opp":"Denys Bondar","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":3,"x":488.6,"y":278.3,"elo":1449,"date":"2023-12-09","opp":"Tatsuro Taira","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":4,"x":612.9,"y":354,"elo":1421,"date":"2024-06-29","opp":"Rei Tsuruya","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":5,"x":702.9,"y":307.1,"elo":1439,"date":"2024-11-23","opp":"Nyamjargal Tumendemberel","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":6,"x":810,"y":345.2,"elo":1424,"date":"2025-05-17","opp":"Hyunsung Park","result":"L","delta":-14}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 17, 2025 Hyunsung Park L -14
Nov 23, 2024 Nyamjargal Tumendemberel W +18
Jun 29, 2024 Rei Tsuruya L -28
Dec 9, 2023 Tatsuro Taira L -25
Jun 17, 2023 Denys Bondar W +26

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
0%
0 / 3
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
100% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (100%) 3

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 255 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
71% Head
  • Head 71%
  • Body 17%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
77% Distance
  • Distance 77%
  • Clinch 18%
  • Ground 5%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
75%
of losses by finish
3 of 4 · usually R1
1 KO/TKO 2 Sub 1 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1527
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Victor Altamirano
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
3.3
−0.3 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 7 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1500
1564

Top flyweight

See full rankings →
Alexandre Pantoja
#1 · Elo 1646
Joshua Van C
#2 · Elo 1633
Manel Kape
#3 · Elo 1601
Tatsuro Taira
#4 · Elo 1597
Kyoji Horiguchi
#5 · Elo 1578
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Carlos Hernandez on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.