HonestElo
← flyweight

Jesus Aguilar

Active #27 flyweight · age 30 · Orthodox · 5'4" 163 cm · 125 lb 57 kg · reach 62" 158 cm
At a glance
  • 50% of wins by KO or submission
  • 50% of wins finished in round 1
Elo rating
1462
Global Elo 1506 ±34
Rank
#27
top 60% of division
UFC record
4-4-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 2
Streak
-2
Δ90d -18 · Δ1y -22
Last fight
May 30, 2026
Loss by Submission · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
1h 7m
Avg fight time
9:37
Bonuses
1
Fights per year
2.4
Since last fight
21d

Honest Elo history

8 fights · tap & drag
Feb 4, 2023 — L vs Tatsuro Taira Δ-27Jul 8, 2023 — W vs Shannon Ross Δ+32Feb 24, 2024 — W vs Mateus Mendonca Δ+24Aug 17, 2024 — W vs Stewart Nicoll Δ+30Feb 15, 2025 — L vs Rafael Estevam Δ-31Sep 13, 2025 — W vs Luis Gurule Δ+13Mar 7, 2026 — L vs Sumudaerji Δ-17May 30, 2026 — L vs Rei Tsuruya Δ-18 1400142514501475150015251550 202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":349.4,"elo":1428,"date":"2023-02-04","opp":"Tatsuro Taira","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":1,"x":181.6,"y":280.5,"elo":1461,"date":"2023-07-08","opp":"Shannon Ross","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":2,"x":318.9,"y":229.3,"elo":1485,"date":"2024-02-24","opp":"Mateus Mendonca","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":3,"x":422.9,"y":164.5,"elo":1515,"date":"2024-08-17","opp":"Stewart Nicoll","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":4,"x":531.2,"y":231.7,"elo":1484,"date":"2025-02-15","opp":"Rafael Estevam","result":"L","delta":-31},{"i":5,"x":656,"y":203.7,"elo":1497,"date":"2025-09-13","opp":"Luis Gurule","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":6,"x":760.1,"y":240.4,"elo":1479,"date":"2026-03-07","opp":"Sumudaerji","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":7,"x":810,"y":278.6,"elo":1462,"date":"2026-05-30","opp":"Rei Tsuruya","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 30, 2026 Rei Tsuruya L -18
Mar 7, 2026 Sumudaerji L -17
Sep 13, 2025 Luis Gurule W +13
Feb 15, 2025 Rafael Estevam L -31
Aug 17, 2024 Stewart Nicoll W +30

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
2 / 4
Finish rate
KO
1
25% of wins
SUB
1
25% of wins
DEC
2
50% of wins
KO: 1 (25%) 1 Sub: 1 (25%) 1 Dec: 2 (50%) 2
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
2 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 177 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
49% Head
  • Head 49%
  • Body 24%
  • Leg 27%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
88% Distance
  • Distance 88%
  • Clinch 10%
  • Ground 3%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
50%
of losses by finish
2 of 4 · usually R1
0 KO/TKO 2 Sub 2 Dec Never been KO'd

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1507
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Stewart Nicoll
Elo 1500 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
4.2
−0.2 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 8 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1559
1532

Top flyweight

See full rankings →
Alexandre Pantoja
#1 · Elo 1646
Joshua Van C
#2 · Elo 1633
Manel Kape
#3 · Elo 1601
Tatsuro Taira
#4 · Elo 1597
Kyoji Horiguchi
#5 · Elo 1578
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Jesus Aguilar on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.