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✓ Jake Matthews won · by Decision · R3 · 5:00
welterweight
Other bouts 12
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
May 30, 2026 · Macau, China
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Corner A
Jake Matthews
#20 16-8-0
Elo 1580
VS
Corner B
Carlston Harris
#46 4-4-0
Elo 1499
Final result · recorded Jun 3, 2026
Jake Matthews
defeated Carlston Harris by Decision in round 3 at 5:00

Honest Elo mode pre-fight: Jake Matthews 50.0% · Carlston Harris 50.0%

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

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Other fights on this card · 12
Song Yadong vs Deiveson Figueiredo Main event · bantamweight Alonzo Menifield vs Zhang Mingyang light heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira heavyweight Kai Asakura vs Cameron Smotherman bantamweight Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji flyweight Luis Felipe Dias vs YiSak Lee middleweight Jose Souza vs Ding Meng welterweight Cody Haddon vs Aoriqileng bantamweight Rei Tsuruya vs Luis Gurule bantamweight Angela Hill vs Xiong Jingnan women's strawweight Jaqueline Amorim vs Loma Lookboonmee women's strawweight Rodrigo Vera vs Zhu Kangjie featherweight

Tale of the tape

16-8-0 UFC record 4-4-0
KO 1 · Sub 6 Finishes KO 1 · Sub 2
+1 Streak -3
31 Age 38
5'11" 180 cm Height 6'0" 183 cm
73" 185 cm Reach 76" 193 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1626 Global Elo 1547
1580 Elo rating 1499
Jake Matthews — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 50% of wins by KO or submission
  • UFC veteran since 2014
Carlston Harris — Notable ▼
At a glance
  • 3-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • Earned a bonus in 2 of last 5 fights
  • 75% of wins by KO or submission
  • 50% of wins finished in round 1

Jake Matthews — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 925 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
72% Head
  • Head 72%
  • Body 17%
  • Leg 11%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
72% Distance
  • Distance 72%
  • Clinch 7%
  • Ground 21%

Carlston Harris — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 221 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
62% Head
  • Head 62%
  • Body 26%
  • Leg 12%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
82% Distance
  • Distance 82%
  • Clinch 6%
  • Ground 12%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

3.36
3.34
div avg 4.04
44%
43%
div avg 50%
2.58
3.50
div avg 3.06
61%
52%
div avg 56%
1.36
1.13
div avg 2.25
42%
20%
div avg 42%
67%
56%
div avg 72%
0.71
0.45
div avg 0.54
4
3
div avg 4

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Jake Matthews
44% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 6
can finish?
Carlston Harris
finished 75%
3 of 4 losses
Carlston Harris
75% finish rate
KO 1 · Sub 2
can finish?
Jake Matthews
finished 63%
5 of 8 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1552 (Jake Matthews) vs 1577 (Carlston Harris).

Jake Matthews red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1552
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
1
of 16 UFC wins
Toughest win
Johnny Case
Elo 1610 at fight time
Expected wins
13.4
+2.6 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 24 fights
1500
1560
Notable wins
Johnny Case 1610
Carlston Harris blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1577
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
1
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Jeremiah Wells
Elo 1628 at fight time
Expected wins
3.9
+0.1 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 8 fights
1503
1613
Notable wins
Jeremiah Wells 1628
Corner A recent form
Jake Matthews
Corner B recent form
Carlston Harris
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Jake Matthews & Carlston Harris on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.