HonestElo
← lightweight

Johnny Case

Inactive · Orthodox · 178 cm · reach 183 cm
Elo rating
1550 ±36
LCB 1503
Rank
—
—
UFC record
4-2-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 2
Streak
-2
Δ90d -3 · Δ1y -3
Last fight
Jun 25, 2017
L by Decision

Elo history

6 fights · tap & drag
Sep 20, 2014 — W vs Kazuki Tokudome Δ+30Jan 18, 2015 — W vs Frankie Perez Δ+30Jun 13, 2015 — W vs Francisco Trevino Δ+26Nov 7, 2015 — W vs Yan Cabral Δ+24Mar 19, 2016 — L vs Jake Matthews Δ-38Jun 25, 2017 — L vs Anthony Rocco Martin Δ-19 14901530157016101650 201520162017 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":182.9,"elo":1530,"date":"2014-09-20","opp":"Kazuki Tokudome","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":1,"x":125.3,"y":142.7,"elo":1561,"date":"2015-01-18","opp":"Frankie Perez","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":248.6,"y":108.4,"elo":1587,"date":"2015-06-13","opp":"Francisco Trevino","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":3,"x":372.7,"y":77.1,"elo":1610,"date":"2015-11-07","opp":"Yan Cabral","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":4,"x":485,"y":127.9,"elo":1572,"date":"2016-03-19","opp":"Jake Matthews","result":"L","delta":-38},{"i":5,"x":876,"y":153.1,"elo":1553,"date":"2017-06-25","opp":"Anthony Rocco Martin","result":"L","delta":-19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jun 25, 2017 Anthony Rocco Martin L -19
Mar 19, 2016 Jake Matthews L -38
Nov 7, 2015 Yan Cabral W +24
Jun 13, 2015 Francisco Trevino W +26
Jan 18, 2015 Frankie Perez W +30

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.68 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
39% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.48 avg 3.34
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
61% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.59 avg 1.60
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
45% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
73% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.18 avg 0.54
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
2 / 4
Finish rate
KO
1
25% of wins
SUB
1
25% of wins
DEC
2
50% of wins
KO: 1 (25%) 1 Sub: 1 (25%) 1 Dec: 2 (50%) 2
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
R2
1 50%
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1522
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.4
actual +1 vs expected