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Matthew Semelsberger

Active #69 welterweight · Switch · 185 cm · reach 191 cm
Elo rating
1515 ±39
LCB 1464
Rank
#69
top 75% of division
UFC record
5-6-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
-4
Δ90d +3 · Δ1y +3
Last fight
Nov 9, 2024
L by KO

Elo history

11 fights · tap & drag
Aug 22, 2020 — W vs Carlton Minus Δ+29Mar 13, 2021 — W vs Jason Witt Δ+31Jun 19, 2021 — L vs Khaos Williams Δ-30Sep 25, 2021 — W vs Martin Sano Δ+30Mar 12, 2022 — W vs Aj Fletcher Δ+24Jul 30, 2022 — L vs Alex Morono Δ-15Dec 17, 2022 — W vs Jake Matthews Δ+18Apr 22, 2023 — L vs Jeremiah Wells Δ-15Jul 29, 2023 — L vs Uros Medic Δ-20Jan 13, 2024 — L vs Preston Parsons Δ-19Nov 9, 2024 — L vs Charles Radtke Δ-19 14721511154915881626 2021202220232024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":158,"elo":1529,"date":"2020-08-22","opp":"Carlton Minus","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":1,"x":136.3,"y":116,"elo":1559,"date":"2021-03-13","opp":"Jason Witt","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":2,"x":190.5,"y":157.5,"elo":1529,"date":"2021-06-19","opp":"Khaos Williams","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":3,"x":244.7,"y":115.6,"elo":1560,"date":"2021-09-25","opp":"Martin Sano","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":4,"x":337.7,"y":82.7,"elo":1584,"date":"2022-03-12","opp":"Aj Fletcher","result":"W","delta":24},{"i":5,"x":415.1,"y":104,"elo":1568,"date":"2022-07-30","opp":"Alex Morono","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":6,"x":492.6,"y":79.1,"elo":1586,"date":"2022-12-17","opp":"Jake Matthews","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":7,"x":562.3,"y":100.3,"elo":1571,"date":"2023-04-22","opp":"Jeremiah Wells","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":8,"x":616.5,"y":128.4,"elo":1550,"date":"2023-07-29","opp":"Uros Medic","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":9,"x":709.5,"y":154.9,"elo":1531,"date":"2024-01-13","opp":"Preston Parsons","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":10,"x":876,"y":180.9,"elo":1512,"date":"2024-11-09","opp":"Charles Radtke","result":"L","delta":-19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Nov 9, 2024 Charles Radtke L -19
Jan 13, 2024 Preston Parsons L -19
Jul 29, 2023 Uros Medic L -20
Apr 22, 2023 Jeremiah Wells L -15
Dec 17, 2022 Jake Matthews W +18

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.33 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
43% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.73 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
54% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.89 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
57% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
46% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.33 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
40%
2 / 5
Finish rate
KO
2
40% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
60% of wins
KO: 2 (40%) 2 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (60%) 3
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
2 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1549
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.8
actual -1 vs expected