HonestElo
← Back to event card
✓ Rei Tsuruya won · by Submission · R1 · 3:19

Rei Tsuruya vs Luis Gurule — Honest Elo matchup

bantamweight
Other bouts 11
Fight Card
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
May 30, 2026 · Macau, China
View full event card
Corner A
Rei Tsuruya
#14 3-1-0
Elo 1515
VS
Corner B
Luis Gurule
#71 1-4-0
Elo 1383
Final result · recorded Jun 3, 2026
Rei Tsuruya
defeated Luis Gurule by Submission in round 1 at 3:19

The Honest Elo Meter is hidden once a bout is recorded — win-probability simulations only make sense before the fight. Pre-fight ratings have been updated in both fighters' profiles below to reflect this result.

Independent UFC analytics

Like this breakdown? Get the edge on every card.

Honest Elo rates every UFC fighter with a confidence band — no hype, not betting advice.

Follow @HonestElo Next card →
Other fights on this card · 11
Song Yadong vs Deiveson Figueiredo Main event · bantamweight Alonzo Menifield vs Zhang Mingyang light heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira heavyweight Kai Asakura vs Cameron Smotherman bantamweight Jake Matthews vs Carlston Harris welterweight Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji flyweight Luis Felipe Dias vs YiSak Lee middleweight Jose Souza vs Ding Meng welterweight Cody Haddon vs Aoriqileng bantamweight Jaqueline Amorim vs Loma Lookboonmee women's strawweight Rodrigo Vera vs Zhu Kangjie featherweight

Notable

Size

Cross-division matchup: the model gives Gurule +50 Elo for a ~10 lb representative gap. Toggle it off to compare pure skill.

Tsuruya

Has never been finished — the only loss went to the scorecards.

Tale of the tape

3-1-0 UFC record 1-4-0
KO 0 · Sub 2 Finishes KO 0 · Sub 0
+2 Streak -1
24 Age 32
5'6" 168 cm Height 5'5" 165 cm
68" 173 cm Reach 64" 163 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1557 Global Elo 1424
1515 Elo rating 1383
Rei Tsuruya — Notable ▼
At a glance
Luis Gurule — Notable ▼

Rei Tsuruya — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 105 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
94% Head
  • Head 94%
  • Body 4%
  • Leg 2%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
63% Ground
  • Distance 35%
  • Clinch 2%
  • Ground 63%

Luis Gurule — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 277 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
75% Head
  • Head 75%
  • Body 10%
  • Leg 15%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
90% Distance
  • Distance 90%
  • Clinch 9%
  • Ground 1%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

2.80
5.02
div avg 3.96
50%
41%
div avg 47%
2.02
5.65
div avg 3.36
42%
57%
div avg 56%
3.99
0.81
div avg 1.57
28%
18%
div avg 38%
50%
73%
div avg 64%
0.80
0.27
div avg 0.78
7
2
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

vs Open the full side-by-side comparison →

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Rei Tsuruya
67% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 2
can finish?
Luis Gurule
finished 50%
2 of 4 losses
Luis Gurule
0% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 0
can finish?
Rei Tsuruya
finished 0%
never finished

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1493 (Rei Tsuruya) vs 1501 (Luis Gurule).

Rei Tsuruya red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1493
Developing slate
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 3 UFC wins
Toughest win
Carlos Hernandez
Elo 1495 at fight time
Expected wins
2.1
+0.9 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1495
1447
Luis Gurule blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1501
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 1 UFC wins
Toughest win
Daniel Barez
Elo 1468 at fight time
Expected wins
2.2
−1.2 below schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 5 fights
1471
1504
Corner A recent form
Rei Tsuruya
Corner B recent form
Luis Gurule
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Rei Tsuruya & Luis Gurule on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.