HonestElo
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Fernando Padilla

Active #74 featherweight
Elo rating
1503 ±42
LCB 1449
Rank
#74
top 76% of division
UFC record
2-2-0
KO 1 · Sub 1 · Dec 0
Streak
-1
Δ90d +1 · Δ1y +1
Last fight
Dec 14, 2024
L by KO

Elo history

4 fights · tap & drag
Apr 29, 2023 — W vs Julian Erosa Δ+32Sep 16, 2023 — L vs Kyle Nelson Δ-35Mar 23, 2024 — W vs Luis Pajuelo Δ+34Dec 14, 2024 — L vs Sean Woodson Δ-28 14571485151415431572 2024 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":97.5,"elo":1532,"date":"2023-04-29","opp":"Julian Erosa","result":"W","delta":32},{"i":1,"x":224.5,"y":162.5,"elo":1497,"date":"2023-09-16","opp":"Kyle Nelson","result":"L","delta":-35},{"i":2,"x":495.1,"y":100.9,"elo":1530,"date":"2024-03-23","opp":"Luis Pajuelo","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":3,"x":876,"y":152.2,"elo":1502,"date":"2024-12-14","opp":"Sean Woodson","result":"L","delta":-28}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Dec 14, 2024 Sean Woodson L -28
Mar 23, 2024 Luis Pajuelo W +34
Sep 16, 2023 Kyle Nelson L -35
Apr 29, 2023 Julian Erosa W +32

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.93 avg 3.76
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
40% avg 49%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
4.67 avg 2.97
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
52% avg 57%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.00 avg 1.39
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
0% avg 41%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
100% avg 63%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.50 avg 0.43
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
2 / 2
Finish rate
KO
1
50% of wins
SUB
1
50% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 1 (50%) 1 Sub: 1 (50%) 1 Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
2 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1506
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.0
actual 0 vs expected