HonestElo
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Patrick Cummins

Inactive · Orthodox · 188 cm · reach 193 cm
Elo rating
1511 ±35
LCB 1466
Rank
—
—
UFC record
6-7-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 · Dec 4
Streak
-3
Δ90d +8 · Δ1y +8
Last fight
May 18, 2019
L by KO

Elo history

13 fights · tap & drag
Feb 22, 2014 — L vs Daniel Cormier Δ-26Jun 7, 2014 — W vs Roger Narvaez Δ+36Jul 26, 2014 — W vs Kyle Kingsbury Δ+31Dec 20, 2014 — W vs Antonio Carlos Junior Δ+29Apr 18, 2015 — L vs Ovince Saint Preux Δ-29Aug 1, 2015 — W vs Rafael Cavalcante Δ+16Nov 7, 2015 — L vs Glover Teixeira Δ-13May 14, 2016 — L vs Rogerio Nogueira Δ-18Apr 8, 2017 — W vs Jan Blachowicz Δ+14Jul 22, 2017 — W vs Gian Villante Δ+16Apr 21, 2018 — L vs Corey Anderson Δ-16Oct 27, 2018 — L vs Misha Cirkunov Δ-17May 18, 2019 — L vs Ed Herman Δ-18 14341477152115651608 20152016201720182019 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":187.5,"elo":1474,"date":"2014-02-22","opp":"Daniel Cormier","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":1,"x":70.8,"y":144.1,"elo":1509,"date":"2014-06-07","opp":"Roger Narvaez","result":"W","delta":36},{"i":2,"x":92.7,"y":107.1,"elo":1540,"date":"2014-07-26","opp":"Kyle Kingsbury","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":3,"x":158.2,"y":72.5,"elo":1568,"date":"2014-12-20","opp":"Antonio Carlos Junior","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":4,"x":211.3,"y":108.2,"elo":1539,"date":"2015-04-18","opp":"Ovince Saint Preux","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":5,"x":258.1,"y":89,"elo":1555,"date":"2015-08-01","opp":"Rafael Cavalcante","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":6,"x":301.8,"y":105.3,"elo":1541,"date":"2015-11-07","opp":"Glover Teixeira","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":7,"x":386,"y":126.9,"elo":1523,"date":"2016-05-14","opp":"Rogerio Nogueira","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":8,"x":532.7,"y":109.4,"elo":1538,"date":"2017-04-08","opp":"Jan Blachowicz","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":9,"x":579.5,"y":90.5,"elo":1553,"date":"2017-07-22","opp":"Gian Villante","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":701.2,"y":109.9,"elo":1537,"date":"2018-04-21","opp":"Corey Anderson","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":11,"x":785.5,"y":130.3,"elo":1521,"date":"2018-10-27","opp":"Misha Cirkunov","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":12,"x":876,"y":152.6,"elo":1502,"date":"2019-05-18","opp":"Ed Herman","result":"L","delta":-18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
May 18, 2019 Ed Herman L -18
Oct 27, 2018 Misha Cirkunov L -17
Apr 21, 2018 Corey Anderson L -16
Jul 22, 2017 Gian Villante W +16
Apr 8, 2017 Jan Blachowicz W +14

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
3.69 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
51% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.90 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
56% avg 50%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
3.89 avg 0.72
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
41% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
29% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.11 avg 0.36
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
5 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
33%
2 / 6
Finish rate
KO
2
33% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
4
67% of wins
KO: 2 (33%) 2 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 4 (67%) 4
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
R2
1 50%
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1532
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
6.2
actual 0 vs expected