HonestElo
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Christian Leroy Duncan

Active #16 middleweight
Elo rating
1602 ±32
LCB 1560
Rank
#16
top 19% of division
UFC record
7-2-0
KO 5 · Sub 0 · Dec 2
Streak
+4
Δ90d +18 · Δ1y +54
Last fight
Mar 21, 2026
W by Decision

Elo history

9 fights · tap & drag
Mar 18, 2023 — W vs Dusko Todorovic Δ+31Jun 17, 2023 — L vs Armen Petrosyan Δ-29Nov 18, 2023 — W vs Denis Tiuliulin Δ+28Mar 2, 2024 — W vs Claudio Ribeiro Δ+28Jul 27, 2024 — L vs Gregory Rodrigues Δ-25Mar 22, 2025 — W vs Andrey Pulyaev Δ+15Aug 9, 2025 — W vs Eryk Anders Δ+18Nov 8, 2025 — W vs Marco Tulio Δ+18Mar 21, 2026 — W vs Roman Dolidze Δ+18 14631507155215971642 202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":154.5,"elo":1531,"date":"2023-03-18","opp":"Dusko Todorovic","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":1,"x":94.5,"y":188.7,"elo":1503,"date":"2023-06-17","opp":"Armen Petrosyan","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":2,"x":213.9,"y":155.7,"elo":1530,"date":"2023-11-18","opp":"Denis Tiuliulin","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":3,"x":295.3,"y":123,"elo":1558,"date":"2024-03-02","opp":"Claudio Ribeiro","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":4,"x":409.3,"y":152.4,"elo":1533,"date":"2024-07-27","opp":"Gregory Rodrigues","result":"L","delta":-25},{"i":5,"x":593.8,"y":135.2,"elo":1548,"date":"2025-03-22","opp":"Andrey Pulyaev","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":6,"x":702.3,"y":113.4,"elo":1566,"date":"2025-08-09","opp":"Eryk Anders","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":7,"x":772.9,"y":92,"elo":1584,"date":"2025-11-08","opp":"Marco Tulio","result":"W","delta":18},{"i":8,"x":876,"y":71.3,"elo":1602,"date":"2026-03-21","opp":"Roman Dolidze","result":"W","delta":18}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 21, 2026 Roman Dolidze W +18
Nov 8, 2025 Marco Tulio W +18
Aug 9, 2025 Eryk Anders W +18
Mar 22, 2025 Andrey Pulyaev W +15
Jul 27, 2024 Gregory Rodrigues L -25

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
4.01 avg 3.83
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
58% avg 52%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.34 avg 3.10
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
53% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.30 avg 1.45
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
17% avg 46%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
63% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.49
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
71%
5 / 7
Finish rate
KO
5
71% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
2
29% of wins
KO: 5 (71%) 5 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 2 (29%) 2
Finishes by round
5 total
R1
2 40%
R2
3 60%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1566
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.6
actual +2 vs expected