HonestElo
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Sam Alvey

Inactive · Southpaw · 188 cm · reach 191 cm
Elo rating
1484 ±20
LCB 1458
Rank
—
—
UFC record
10-13-1
KO 5 · Sub 1 · Dec 4
Streak
-4
Δ90d +20 · Δ1y +20
Last fight
Aug 6, 2022
L by KO

Elo history

24 fights · tap & drag
Aug 16, 2014 — L vs Tom Watson Δ-32Nov 7, 2014 — W vs Dylan Andrews Δ+39Feb 22, 2015 — W vs Cezar Ferreira Δ+40May 9, 2015 — W vs Daniel Kelly Δ+35Aug 8, 2015 — L vs Derek Brunson Δ-32Jun 18, 2016 — L vs Elias Theodorou Δ-15Jul 13, 2016 — W vs Eric Spicely Δ+17Aug 27, 2016 — W vs Kevin Casey Δ+14Nov 5, 2016 — W vs Alex Nicholson Δ+13Jan 28, 2017 — W vs Nate Marquardt Δ+16Apr 22, 2017 — L vs Thales Leites Δ-15Aug 5, 2017 — W vs Rashad Evans Δ+19Oct 21, 2017 — L vs Ramazan Emeev Δ-20Feb 24, 2018 — W vs Marcin Prachnio Δ+14Jun 1, 2018 — W vs Gian Villante Δ+13Sep 22, 2018 — L vs Rogerio Nogueira Δ-21Feb 9, 2019 — L vs Jimmy Crute Δ-21Jul 20, 2019 — L vs Klidson Abreu Δ-20May 9, 2020 — L vs Ryan Spann Δ-14Oct 24, 2020 — D vs Da Woon Jung Δ+2Apr 10, 2021 — L vs Julian Marquez Δ-19Aug 28, 2021 — L vs Wellington Turman Δ-19Feb 5, 2022 — L vs Brendan Allen Δ-13Aug 6, 2022 — L vs Michal Oleksiejczuk Δ-15 14241480153515901645 2016201820202022 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":194,"elo":1468,"date":"2014-08-16","opp":"Tom Watson","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":1,"x":48.3,"y":156.7,"elo":1507,"date":"2014-11-07","opp":"Dylan Andrews","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":2,"x":79.6,"y":118.5,"elo":1547,"date":"2015-02-22","opp":"Cezar Ferreira","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":3,"x":101.8,"y":85.3,"elo":1581,"date":"2015-05-09","opp":"Daniel Kelly","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":4,"x":128.5,"y":116.2,"elo":1549,"date":"2015-08-08","opp":"Derek Brunson","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":5,"x":220.6,"y":131.1,"elo":1534,"date":"2016-06-18","opp":"Elias Theodorou","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":6,"x":227.9,"y":115.1,"elo":1550,"date":"2016-07-13","opp":"Eric Spicely","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":7,"x":241.1,"y":101.3,"elo":1565,"date":"2016-08-27","opp":"Kevin Casey","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":8,"x":261.6,"y":88.6,"elo":1578,"date":"2016-11-05","opp":"Alex Nicholson","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":9,"x":286.2,"y":73,"elo":1594,"date":"2017-01-28","opp":"Nate Marquardt","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":310.7,"y":87.6,"elo":1579,"date":"2017-04-22","opp":"Thales Leites","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":11,"x":341.5,"y":69.1,"elo":1598,"date":"2017-08-05","opp":"Rashad Evans","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":12,"x":364,"y":88.7,"elo":1578,"date":"2017-10-21","opp":"Ramazan Emeev","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":13,"x":400.8,"y":74.8,"elo":1592,"date":"2018-02-24","opp":"Marcin Prachnio","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":14,"x":429.2,"y":62.4,"elo":1605,"date":"2018-06-01","opp":"Gian Villante","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":15,"x":462.3,"y":82.4,"elo":1584,"date":"2018-09-22","opp":"Rogerio Nogueira","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":16,"x":503.3,"y":102.6,"elo":1563,"date":"2019-02-09","opp":"Jimmy Crute","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":17,"x":550.4,"y":121.9,"elo":1543,"date":"2019-07-20","opp":"Klidson Abreu","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":18,"x":636.4,"y":135.1,"elo":1530,"date":"2020-05-09","opp":"Ryan Spann","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":19,"x":685.5,"y":133.5,"elo":1531,"date":"2020-10-24","opp":"Da Woon Jung","result":"D","delta":2},{"i":20,"x":734.7,"y":151.6,"elo":1512,"date":"2021-04-10","opp":"Julian Marquez","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":21,"x":775.6,"y":169.9,"elo":1493,"date":"2021-08-28","opp":"Wellington Turman","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":22,"x":822.8,"y":182.8,"elo":1480,"date":"2022-02-05","opp":"Brendan Allen","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":23,"x":876,"y":197.6,"elo":1464,"date":"2022-08-06","opp":"Michal Oleksiejczuk","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 6, 2022 Michal Oleksiejczuk L -15
Feb 5, 2022 Brendan Allen L -13
Aug 28, 2021 Wellington Turman L -19
Apr 10, 2021 Julian Marquez L -19
Oct 24, 2020 Da Woon Jung D +2

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.92 avg 3.81
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
45% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
3.23 avg 3.07
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
53% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.06 avg 1.42
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
14% avg 45%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
82% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.06 avg 0.48
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
1 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
60%
6 / 10
Finish rate
KO
5
50% of wins
SUB
1
10% of wins
DEC
4
40% of wins
KO: 5 (50%) 5 Sub: 1 (10%) 1 Dec: 4 (40%) 4
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
5 83%
R2
1 17%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1531
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
12.3
actual -2 vs expected