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Sam Alvey "Smile'N"

Inactive · age 40 · Southpaw · 6'2" 188 cm · 205 lb 93 kg · reach 75" 191 cm
At a glance
  • 4-fight losing streak — needs a turnaround
  • 60% of wins by KO or submission
  • 50% of wins finished in round 1
  • UFC veteran since 2014
Elo rating
1458
Global Elo 1484 ±20
Rank
—
—
UFC record
10-13-1
KO 5 · Sub 1 · Dec 4
Streak
-4
Δ90d +19 · Δ1y +19
Last fight
Aug 6, 2022
Loss by KO · R1
Career at a glance
Octagon time
3h 51m
Avg fight time
9:38
Bonuses
3
Fights per year
3.0
Since last fight
3y 11mo

Honest Elo history

24 fights · tap & drag
Aug 16, 2014 — L vs Tom Watson Δ-32Nov 7, 2014 — W vs Dylan Andrews Δ+39Feb 22, 2015 — W vs Cezar Ferreira Δ+40May 9, 2015 — W vs Daniel Kelly Δ+35Aug 8, 2015 — L vs Derek Brunson Δ-32Jun 18, 2016 — L vs Elias Theodorou Δ-15Jul 13, 2016 — W vs Eric Spicely Δ+17Aug 27, 2016 — W vs Kevin Casey Δ+14Nov 5, 2016 — W vs Alex Nicholson Δ+13Jan 28, 2017 — W vs Nate Marquardt Δ+16Apr 22, 2017 — L vs Thales Leites Δ-15Aug 5, 2017 — W vs Rashad Evans Δ+19Oct 21, 2017 — L vs Ramazan Emeev Δ-20Feb 24, 2018 — W vs Marcin Prachnio Δ+14Jun 1, 2018 — W vs Gian Villante Δ+13Sep 22, 2018 — L vs Rogerio Nogueira Δ-21Feb 9, 2019 — L vs Jimmy Crute Δ-21Jul 20, 2019 — L vs Klidson Abreu Δ-20May 9, 2020 — L vs Ryan Spann Δ-14Oct 24, 2020 — D vs Da Woon Jung Δ+2Apr 10, 2021 — L vs Julian Marquez Δ-19Aug 28, 2021 — L vs Wellington Turman Δ-19Feb 5, 2022 — L vs Brendan Allen Δ-13Aug 6, 2022 — L vs Michal Oleksiejczuk Δ-15 140014501500155016001650 2016201820202022 [{"i":0,"x":90,"y":331.4,"elo":1461,"date":"2014-08-16","opp":"Tom Watson","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":1,"x":110.5,"y":281.6,"elo":1500,"date":"2014-11-07","opp":"Dylan Andrews","result":"W","delta":39},{"i":2,"x":137,"y":230.7,"elo":1540,"date":"2015-02-22","opp":"Cezar Ferreira","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":3,"x":155.8,"y":186.4,"elo":1575,"date":"2015-05-09","opp":"Daniel Kelly","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":4,"x":178.3,"y":227.6,"elo":1543,"date":"2015-08-08","opp":"Derek Brunson","result":"L","delta":-32},{"i":5,"x":256.2,"y":247.4,"elo":1527,"date":"2016-06-18","opp":"Elias Theodorou","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":6,"x":262.3,"y":226.2,"elo":1544,"date":"2016-07-13","opp":"Eric Spicely","result":"W","delta":17},{"i":7,"x":273.5,"y":207.8,"elo":1558,"date":"2016-08-27","opp":"Kevin Casey","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":8,"x":290.8,"y":190.7,"elo":1571,"date":"2016-11-05","opp":"Alex Nicholson","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":9,"x":311.5,"y":170,"elo":1588,"date":"2017-01-28","opp":"Nate Marquardt","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":10,"x":332.3,"y":189.5,"elo":1572,"date":"2017-04-22","opp":"Thales Leites","result":"L","delta":-15},{"i":11,"x":358.3,"y":164.8,"elo":1592,"date":"2017-08-05","opp":"Rashad Evans","result":"W","delta":19},{"i":12,"x":377.3,"y":190.9,"elo":1571,"date":"2017-10-21","opp":"Ramazan Emeev","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":13,"x":408.5,"y":172.4,"elo":1586,"date":"2018-02-24","opp":"Marcin Prachnio","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":14,"x":432.4,"y":155.8,"elo":1599,"date":"2018-06-01","opp":"Gian Villante","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":15,"x":460.4,"y":182.5,"elo":1578,"date":"2018-09-22","opp":"Rogerio Nogueira","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":16,"x":495,"y":209.4,"elo":1557,"date":"2019-02-09","opp":"Jimmy Crute","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":17,"x":534.8,"y":235.3,"elo":1537,"date":"2019-07-20","opp":"Klidson Abreu","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":18,"x":607.5,"y":252.8,"elo":1523,"date":"2020-05-09","opp":"Ryan Spann","result":"L","delta":-14},{"i":19,"x":649,"y":250.8,"elo":1524,"date":"2020-10-24","opp":"Da Woon Jung","result":"D","delta":2},{"i":20,"x":690.6,"y":274.8,"elo":1506,"date":"2021-04-10","opp":"Julian Marquez","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":21,"x":725.2,"y":299.3,"elo":1487,"date":"2021-08-28","opp":"Wellington Turman","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":22,"x":765,"y":316.4,"elo":1473,"date":"2022-02-05","opp":"Brendan Allen","result":"L","delta":-13},{"i":23,"x":810,"y":336.3,"elo":1458,"date":"2022-08-06","opp":"Michal Oleksiejczuk","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Aug 6, 2022 Michal Oleksiejczuk L -15
Feb 5, 2022 Brendan Allen L -13
Aug 28, 2021 Wellington Turman L -19
Apr 10, 2021 Julian Marquez L -19
Oct 24, 2020 Da Woon Jung D +2

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
L1L3L5
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
L1L3L5
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
L1L3L5
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Striking Defense
L1L3L5
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
L1L3L5
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
L1L3L5
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
L1L3L5
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
L1L3L5
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions. 240 = 4 min, the realistic high-end across divisions.
Control Time (sec)
L1L3L5
KD / 15 min Knockdowns landed per 15 minutes. Counts every flash KD even if the fight continued — measures stopping power across all rounds, not just finishes.
Knockdowns
L1L3L5
Above division avg (intensity ∝ how far)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
60%
6 / 10
Finish rate
KO
5
50% of wins
SUB
1
10% of wins
DEC
4
40% of wins
KO: 5 (50%) 5 Sub: 1 (10%) 1 Dec: 4 (40%) 4
Finishes by round
6 total
R1
5 83%
R2
1 17%
R3
R4
R5

Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 758 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
67% Head
  • Head 67%
  • Body 15%
  • Leg 17%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
76% Distance
  • Distance 76%
  • Clinch 20%
  • Ground 4%

Durability

How they're beaten How fights end AGAINST this fighter. Finished-against rate = (times KO'd + submitted) / total UFC losses. A low rate means they rarely get stopped.
46%
of losses by finish
6 of 13 · usually R1
4 KO/TKO 2 Sub 7 Dec

Strength of schedule in UFC

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1531
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+) Wins over opponents rated 1600+ Elo at the time of the fight — clearly above the ~1500 UFC average, contender tier. A count of genuine quality results, not record-padding.
1
of 10 UFC wins
Toughest win The highest-rated opponent this fighter has a win over, by that opponent's Elo at fight time.
Rashad Evans
Elo 1653 at fight time
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. The line below shows whether this fighter is over- or under-performing their matchups.
12.3
−2.3 wins below what this schedule implies
Opponent Elo over career · 24 UFC fights, oldest → newest
1462
1534
Notable wins
Rashad Evans 1653

Top middleweight

See full rankings →
Dricus Du Plessis
#1 · Elo 1690
Khamzat Chimaev
#2 · Elo 1676
Sean Strickland C
#3 · Elo 1657
Brendan Allen
#4 · Elo 1654
Nassourdine Imavov
#5 · Elo 1648
Source Raw fight data and per-bout statistics come from Sam Alvey on UFCStats →. Elo rating, uncertainty bands, and division-relative analytics computed by HonestElo — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.