HonestElo
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Karl Roberson

Inactive · Southpaw · 185 cm · reach 188 cm
Elo rating
1495 ±36
LCB 1449
Rank
—
—
UFC record
4-6-0
KO 0 · Sub 2 · Dec 2
Streak
-4
Δ90d +13 · Δ1y +13
Last fight
Jul 9, 2022
L by KO

Elo history

10 fights · tap & drag
Nov 11, 2017 — W vs Darren Stewart Δ+31May 12, 2018 — L vs Cezar Ferreira Δ-28Nov 3, 2018 — W vs Jack Marshman Δ+29Jan 19, 2019 — L vs Glover Teixeira Δ-22Jul 13, 2019 — W vs Wellington Turman Δ+28Nov 9, 2019 — W vs Roman Kopylov Δ+16Jun 13, 2020 — L vs Marvin Vettori Δ-19Apr 24, 2021 — L vs Brendan Allen Δ-17Mar 12, 2022 — L vs Khalil Rountree Jr. Δ-18Jul 9, 2022 — L vs Kennedy Nzechukwu Δ-17 14421480151815561594 20182019202020212022 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":112.2,"elo":1531,"date":"2017-11-11","opp":"Darren Stewart","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":1,"x":115.2,"y":151.5,"elo":1502,"date":"2018-05-12","opp":"Cezar Ferreira","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":2,"x":202.8,"y":110.8,"elo":1532,"date":"2018-11-03","opp":"Jack Marshman","result":"W","delta":29},{"i":3,"x":241.4,"y":142.1,"elo":1509,"date":"2019-01-19","opp":"Glover Teixeira","result":"L","delta":-22},{"i":4,"x":329,"y":103,"elo":1537,"date":"2019-07-13","opp":"Wellington Turman","result":"W","delta":28},{"i":5,"x":388.6,"y":79.9,"elo":1554,"date":"2019-11-09","opp":"Roman Kopylov","result":"W","delta":16},{"i":6,"x":497.3,"y":106.6,"elo":1535,"date":"2020-06-13","opp":"Marvin Vettori","result":"L","delta":-19},{"i":7,"x":655.1,"y":129.8,"elo":1518,"date":"2021-04-24","opp":"Brendan Allen","result":"L","delta":-17},{"i":8,"x":816.4,"y":155.6,"elo":1499,"date":"2022-03-12","opp":"Khalil Rountree Jr.","result":"L","delta":-18},{"i":9,"x":876,"y":180.1,"elo":1482,"date":"2022-07-09","opp":"Kennedy Nzechukwu","result":"L","delta":-17}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jul 9, 2022 Kennedy Nzechukwu L -17
Mar 12, 2022 Khalil Rountree Jr. L -18
Apr 24, 2021 Brendan Allen L -17
Jun 13, 2020 Marvin Vettori L -19
Nov 9, 2019 Roman Kopylov W +16

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.19 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
51% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.11 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
58% avg 50%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.63 avg 0.72
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
40% avg 38%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
41% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.47 avg 0.36
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
2 / 4
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
2
50% of wins
DEC
2
50% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 2 (50%) 2 Dec: 2 (50%) 2
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
R3
1 50%
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1529
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.8
actual -1 vs expected