HonestElo
← welterweight

Chris Curtis

Active #43 welterweight · Orthodox · 178 cm
Elo rating
1571 ±34
LCB 1528
Rank
#43
top 46% of division
UFC record
6-5-0
KO 3 · Sub 0 · Dec 3
Streak
-1
Δ90d -15 · Δ1y -1
Last fight
Mar 14, 2026
L by Decision

Elo history

11 fights · tap & drag
Nov 6, 2021 — W vs Phil Hawes Δ+41Dec 4, 2021 — W vs Brendan Allen Δ+40Jun 25, 2022 — W vs Rodolfo Vieira Δ+26Jul 23, 2022 — L vs Jack Hermansson Δ-30Dec 10, 2022 — W vs Joaquin Buckley Δ+30Apr 8, 2023 — L vs Kelvin Gastelum Δ-16Jan 20, 2024 — W vs Marc-Andre Barriault Δ+13Apr 6, 2024 — L vs Brendan Allen Δ-12Jan 11, 2025 — L vs Roman Kopylov Δ-20Jul 12, 2025 — W vs Max Griffin Δ+14Mar 14, 2026 — L vs Myktybek Orolbai Δ-15 15011538157516111648 20222023202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":178.2,"elo":1541,"date":"2021-11-06","opp":"Phil Hawes","result":"W","delta":41},{"i":1,"x":39,"y":120.5,"elo":1581,"date":"2021-12-04","opp":"Brendan Allen","result":"W","delta":40},{"i":2,"x":147.9,"y":82.6,"elo":1607,"date":"2022-06-25","opp":"Rodolfo Vieira","result":"W","delta":26},{"i":3,"x":162.9,"y":126,"elo":1577,"date":"2022-07-23","opp":"Jack Hermansson","result":"L","delta":-30},{"i":4,"x":237.9,"y":81.8,"elo":1608,"date":"2022-12-10","opp":"Joaquin Buckley","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":5,"x":301.7,"y":105.1,"elo":1592,"date":"2023-04-08","opp":"Kelvin Gastelum","result":"L","delta":-16},{"i":6,"x":455.6,"y":86.6,"elo":1605,"date":"2024-01-20","opp":"Marc-Andre Barriault","result":"W","delta":13},{"i":7,"x":496.9,"y":104.7,"elo":1592,"date":"2024-04-06","opp":"Brendan Allen","result":"L","delta":-12},{"i":8,"x":647,"y":133.3,"elo":1572,"date":"2025-01-11","opp":"Roman Kopylov","result":"L","delta":-20},{"i":9,"x":744.6,"y":112.8,"elo":1586,"date":"2025-07-12","opp":"Max Griffin","result":"W","delta":14},{"i":10,"x":876,"y":134.6,"elo":1571,"date":"2026-03-14","opp":"Myktybek Orolbai","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Mar 14, 2026 Myktybek Orolbai L -15
Jul 12, 2025 Max Griffin W +14
Jan 11, 2025 Roman Kopylov L -20
Apr 6, 2024 Brendan Allen L -12
Jan 20, 2024 Marc-Andre Barriault W +13

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
5.30 avg 3.59
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
50% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
5.50 avg 2.84
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
55% avg 55%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.00 avg 1.79
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
0% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
67% avg 70%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.44
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
0 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
50%
3 / 6
Finish rate
KO
3
50% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
3
50% of wins
KO: 3 (50%) 3 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 3 (50%) 3
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
1 33%
R2
2 67%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1582
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
5.4
actual +1 vs expected