HonestElo
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Tom Breese

Inactive · Southpaw · 191 cm · reach 185 cm
Elo rating
1564 ±34
LCB 1520
Rank
—
—
UFC record
5-3-0
KO 4 · Sub 0 · Dec 1
Streak
-1
Δ90d -7 · Δ1y -7
Last fight
Jan 20, 2021
L by Submission

Elo history

8 fights · tap & drag
May 30, 2015 — W vs Luiz Dutra Δ+33Oct 24, 2015 — W vs Cathal Pendred Δ+37Feb 27, 2016 — W vs Keita Nakamura Δ+20Jun 4, 2016 — L vs Sean Strickland Δ-28May 27, 2018 — W vs Daniel Kelly Δ+35Feb 29, 2020 — L vs Brendan Allen Δ-21Oct 10, 2020 — W vs KB Bhullar Δ+15Jan 20, 2021 — L vs Omari Akhmedov Δ-19 14931529156516011637 201620172018201920202021 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":177,"elo":1533,"date":"2015-05-30","opp":"Luiz Dutra","result":"W","delta":33},{"i":1,"x":84.7,"y":122.5,"elo":1570,"date":"2015-10-24","opp":"Cathal Pendred","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":2,"x":136.8,"y":92.6,"elo":1590,"date":"2016-02-27","opp":"Keita Nakamura","result":"W","delta":20},{"i":3,"x":177.3,"y":134.5,"elo":1562,"date":"2016-06-04","opp":"Sean Strickland","result":"L","delta":-28},{"i":4,"x":475.6,"y":83,"elo":1597,"date":"2018-05-27","opp":"Daniel Kelly","result":"W","delta":35},{"i":5,"x":741.3,"y":114.6,"elo":1575,"date":"2020-02-29","opp":"Brendan Allen","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":6,"x":833.9,"y":93.2,"elo":1590,"date":"2020-10-10","opp":"KB Bhullar","result":"W","delta":15},{"i":7,"x":876,"y":121.1,"elo":1571,"date":"2021-01-20","opp":"Omari Akhmedov","result":"L","delta":-19}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jan 20, 2021 Omari Akhmedov L -19
Oct 10, 2020 KB Bhullar W +15
Feb 29, 2020 Brendan Allen L -21
May 27, 2018 Daniel Kelly W +35
Jun 4, 2016 Sean Strickland L -28

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.89 avg 3.81
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
51% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.43 avg 3.07
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
61% avg 53%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.00 avg 1.42
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
0% avg 45%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
71% avg 69%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.92 avg 0.48
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
2 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
80%
4 / 5
Finish rate
KO
4
80% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
1
20% of wins
KO: 4 (80%) 4 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 1 (20%) 1
Finishes by round
4 total
R1
4 100%
R2
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1559
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
4.3
actual +1 vs expected