HonestElo
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Junior Tafa

Active #41 light heavyweight
Elo rating
1450 ±37
LCB 1402
Rank
#41
top 87% of division
UFC record
2-5-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 · Dec 0
Streak
-2
Δ90d -15 · Δ1y -35
Last fight
Jan 31, 2026
L by Submission

Elo history

7 fights · tap & drag
Apr 22, 2023 — L vs Mohammed Usman Δ-26Aug 26, 2023 — W vs Parker Porter Δ+37Feb 17, 2024 — L vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima Δ-29Aug 17, 2024 — L vs Valter Walker Δ-35Oct 12, 2024 — W vs Sean Sharaf Δ+38Jul 12, 2025 — L vs Tuco Tokkos Δ-21Jan 31, 2026 — L vs Billy Elekana Δ-15 14071443147915151551 202420252026 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":137.5,"elo":1474,"date":"2023-04-22","opp":"Mohammed Usman","result":"L","delta":-26},{"i":1,"x":129.8,"y":83.2,"elo":1511,"date":"2023-08-26","opp":"Parker Porter","result":"W","delta":37},{"i":2,"x":276.7,"y":125.5,"elo":1482,"date":"2024-02-17","opp":"Marcos Rogerio de Lima","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":3,"x":429.4,"y":176.8,"elo":1447,"date":"2024-08-17","opp":"Valter Walker","result":"L","delta":-35},{"i":4,"x":476.4,"y":120.5,"elo":1485,"date":"2024-10-12","opp":"Sean Sharaf","result":"W","delta":38},{"i":5,"x":705.6,"y":151.2,"elo":1465,"date":"2025-07-12","opp":"Tuco Tokkos","result":"L","delta":-21},{"i":6,"x":876,"y":172.8,"elo":1450,"date":"2026-01-31","opp":"Billy Elekana","result":"L","delta":-15}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Jan 31, 2026 Billy Elekana L -15
Jul 12, 2025 Tuco Tokkos L -21
Oct 12, 2024 Sean Sharaf W +38
Aug 17, 2024 Valter Walker L -35
Feb 17, 2024 Marcos Rogerio de Lima L -29

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.75 avg 3.66
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
52% avg 53%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.06 avg 3.38
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
52% avg 50%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
0.00 avg 0.72
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
71% avg 75%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.00 avg 0.36
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
0 avg 2
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
2 / 2
Finish rate
KO
2
100% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 2 (100%) 2 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
1 50%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1500
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
3.2
actual -1 vs expected