HonestElo
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Clayton Carpenter

Active #36 flyweight
Elo rating
1499 ±39
LCB 1449
Rank
#36
top 67% of division
UFC record
2-2-0
KO 0 · Sub 2 · Dec 0
Streak
-2
Δ90d 0 · Δ1y -35
Last fight
Oct 11, 2025
L by Submission

Elo history

4 fights · tap & drag
Feb 18, 2023 — W vs Juancamilo Ronderos Δ+31Oct 12, 2024 — W vs Lucas Rocha Δ+30Jan 18, 2025 — L vs Tagir Ulanbekov Δ-27Oct 11, 2025 — L vs Jafel Filho Δ-35 14591494153015651601 20242025 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":129,"elo":1531,"date":"2023-02-18","opp":"Juancamilo Ronderos","result":"W","delta":31},{"i":1,"x":555,"y":83.8,"elo":1561,"date":"2024-10-12","opp":"Lucas Rocha","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":2,"x":641.4,"y":123.8,"elo":1534,"date":"2025-01-18","opp":"Tagir Ulanbekov","result":"L","delta":-27},{"i":3,"x":876,"y":176.2,"elo":1499,"date":"2025-10-11","opp":"Jafel Filho","result":"L","delta":-35}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Oct 11, 2025 Jafel Filho L -35
Jan 18, 2025 Tagir Ulanbekov L -27
Oct 12, 2024 Lucas Rocha W +30
Feb 18, 2023 Juancamilo Ronderos W +31

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.46 avg 3.39
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
55% avg 47%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
1.86 avg 2.87
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
52% avg 56%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
1.29 avg 1.55
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
43% avg 42%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
38% avg 64%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
1.71 avg 0.74
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
4 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
100%
2 / 2
Finish rate
KO
0
0% of wins
SUB
2
100% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 0 (0%) Sub: 2 (100%) 2 Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
2 total
R1
1 50%
R2
1 50%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1518
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.1
actual 0 vs expected