HonestElo
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Magomed Mustafaev

Inactive · Orthodox · 173 cm · reach 180 cm
Elo rating
1535 ±38
LCB 1485
Rank
—
—
UFC record
3-2-0
KO 2 · Sub 0 · Dec 0
Streak
-1
Δ90d +2 · Δ1y +2
Last fight
Feb 22, 2020
L by Decision

Elo history

5 fights · tap & drag
Jun 20, 2015 — W vs Piotr Hallmann Δ+30Dec 12, 2015 — W vs Joe Proctor Δ+34Nov 19, 2016 — L vs Kevin Lee Δ-29Apr 20, 2019 — W vs Rafael Fiziev Δ+30Feb 22, 2020 — L vs Brad Riddell Δ-32 14901519154715761604 20162017201820192020 [{"i":0,"x":24,"y":161.7,"elo":1530,"date":"2015-06-20","opp":"Piotr Hallmann","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":1,"x":111.3,"y":98.9,"elo":1564,"date":"2015-12-12","opp":"Joe Proctor","result":"W","delta":34},{"i":2,"x":282.4,"y":153.7,"elo":1535,"date":"2016-11-19","opp":"Kevin Lee","result":"L","delta":-29},{"i":3,"x":722.4,"y":98.3,"elo":1564,"date":"2019-04-20","opp":"Rafael Fiziev","result":"W","delta":30},{"i":4,"x":876,"y":157.2,"elo":1533,"date":"2020-02-22","opp":"Brad Riddell","result":"L","delta":-32}]

Last fights

Elo-based expectation · not betting advice
Date Opponent Result Δ Elo
Feb 22, 2020 Brad Riddell L -32
Apr 20, 2019 Rafael Fiziev W +30
Nov 19, 2016 Kevin Lee L -29
Dec 12, 2015 Joe Proctor W +34
Jun 20, 2015 Piotr Hallmann W +30

Performance

SLpM Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. Higher = busier striker.
Strikes Landed
2.09 avg 4.05
Str Acc Striking accuracy: significant strikes landed / attempted. Higher = more efficient striker.
Strike Accuracy
59% avg 51%
SApM Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute. How often opponents land on this fighter. Lower is better.
Strikes Absorbed
2.16 avg 3.34
Str Def Share of opponent’s significant strike attempts that miss or are blocked. Higher is better.
Strike Defense
41% avg 54%
TD / 15 min Takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one full 3-round fight). Measures wrestling output.
Takedowns
2.67 avg 1.60
TD Acc Takedowns landed / attempted. Higher = cleaner entries.
Takedown Accuracy
50% avg 37%
TD Def Share of opponent takedown attempts stuffed. Higher = harder to put on the mat.
Takedown Defense
23% avg 72%
Sub / 15 min Submission attempts per 15 minutes. Counts attempts, not just finishes — a proxy for grappling aggression.
Submission Attempts
0.33 avg 0.54
Ctrl / 15 min Control time in seconds per 15 minutes. Time in dominant grappling positions.
Control Time (sec)
3 avg 3
Above division avg (>+10%)
Near avg (±10%)
Below division avg (<−10%)

Finishes

How wins come Finish rate = (KO + Submission wins) / total UFC wins. Measures how often this fighter closes the show before the scorecards.
67%
2 / 3
Finish rate
KO
2
67% of wins
SUB
0
0% of wins
DEC
0
0% of wins
KO: 2 (100%) 2 Sub: 0 (0%) Dec: 0 (0%)
Finishes by round
3 total
R1
2 67%
R2
1 33%
R3
R4
R5

Strength of schedule

Avg opp Elo (last 5) Average Elo rating of the last 5 opponents this fighter faced. A proxy for schedule difficulty — 1700+ is elite-level competition, 1500 is a UFC average opponent.
1537
Expected wins How many wins an average fighter would be expected to have against this exact schedule, based on pre-fight Elo win probabilities. Actual − expected shows whether this fighter outperformed or underperformed their matchups.
2.5
actual 0 vs expected