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Honest Elo Meter

20,000-simulation Monte Carlo · samples each fighter's Elo uncertainty

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By running the simulation you acknowledge that this is data analysis, not betting advice. Run-to-run variance reflects rating uncertainty.

Tale of the tape

11-3-0 UFC record 4-0-0
KO 0 · Sub 3 Finishes KO 2 · Sub 0
+4 Streak +4
33 Age 26
5'6" 168 cm Height 5'7" 170 cm
69" 175 cm Reach 72" 183 cm
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1641 Global Elo 1629
1608 Elo rating 1603
Nathaniel Wood — Notable
At a glance
  • 4-fight UFC win streak
  • UFC veteran since 2018
Mairon Santos — Notable
At a glance

Nathaniel Wood — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 1069 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
55% Head
  • Head 55%
  • Body 10%
  • Leg 34%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
87% Distance
  • Distance 87%
  • Clinch 5%
  • Ground 8%

Mairon Santos — Striking profile

Where significant strikes land — by target zone and by position. 156 landed total · career

Targets head · body · leg
49% Head
  • Head 49%
  • Body 26%
  • Leg 24%
Positions distance · clinch · ground
88% Distance
  • Distance 88%
  • Clinch 9%
  • Ground 3%

Performance comparison

Career averages. Edge highlighted on the side that's better. = division average.

5.64
3.33
div avg 4.36
51%
48%
div avg 49%
4.25
2.24
div avg 3.45
54%
66%
div avg 57%
1.35
0.00
div avg 1.47
49%
0%
div avg 41%
73%
69%
div avg 65%
0.47
0.00
div avg 0.45
2
1
div avg 3

Division-adjusted profile

each axis = percentile in own division
Loading profile…

The size-fair view: each fighter is measured against his own division, so a heavyweight's lower raw pace isn't punished. Toughness inverts strikes absorbed. Raw career numbers are in Performance above.

Finish & durability

How each tends to win, against how hard the other is to finish.

Nathaniel Wood
27% finish rate
KO 0 · Sub 3
can finish?
Mairon Santos
finished
no losses
Mairon Santos
50% finish rate
KO 2 · Sub 0
can finish?
Nathaniel Wood
finished 33%
1 of 3 losses

Strength of schedule in UFC

Comparable recent competition — last-5 avg 1530 (Nathaniel Wood) vs 1542 (Mairon Santos).

Nathaniel Wood red corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1530
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 11 UFC wins
Toughest win
Jose Quinonez
Elo 1581 at fight time
Expected wins
8.0
+3.0 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 14 fights
1516
1500
Mairon Santos blue corner
Avg opp Elo (last 5)
1542
UFC level
Quality wins (1600+)
0
of 4 UFC wins
Toughest win
Muhammad Naimov
Elo 1587 at fight time
Expected wins
2.0
+1.9 above schedule
Opponent Elo over career · 4 fights
1500
1587

Common opponents

1 shared opponent · Corner A's result on the left, Corner B's on the right.

  • L
    W
    Decision - Unanimous
    KO/TKO · R3
    Oct 21, 2023
    Dec 6, 2025
Corner A recent form
Nathaniel Wood
Corner B recent form
Mairon Santos
Source Per-fighter stats and bout records from Nathaniel Wood & Mairon Santos on UFCStats. Honest Elo Meter samples each fighter's rating uncertainty (1,000 Monte Carlo iterations). Data analysis, not betting advice. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.